Football Poisson Calculator
xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine
INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
25.47%
Fair Odds
3.93
Draw
26.09%
Fair Odds
3.83
Away Win
48.44%
Fair Odds
2.06
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.66%
Fair Odds 8.58
Match odds & output
FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
| Market | Market Odds | Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. | Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 3.93 | — | |
| Draw | 3.83 | — | |
| Away Win | 2.06 | — |
Find Value Opportunities
Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.
See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
| # | Correct Score | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 11.66% | 8.58 |
| 2 | 0-1 | 10.32% | 9.69 |
| 3 | 1-2 | 9.5% | 10.53 |
| 4 | 0-2 | 8.41% | 11.89 |
| 5 | 1-0 | 7.15% | 13.98 |
| 6 | 2-1 | 6.59% | 15.18 |
| 7 | 0-0 | 6.33% | 15.8 |
| 8 | 2-2 | 5.37% | 18.63 |
| 9 | 1-3 | 5.16% | 19.37 |
| 10 | 0-3 | 4.57% | 21.89 |
SCORE MATRIX
Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.33%
15.8
|
10.32%
9.69
|
8.41%
11.89
|
4.57%
21.89
|
1.86%
53.72
|
0.61%
164.77
|
| 1 |
7.15%
13.98
|
11.66%
8.58
|
9.5%
10.53
|
5.16%
19.37
|
2.1%
47.54
|
0.69%
145.82
|
| 2 |
4.04%
24.75
|
6.59%
15.18
|
5.37%
18.63
|
2.92%
34.29
|
1.19%
84.14
|
0.39%
258.06
|
| 3 |
1.52%
65.7
|
2.48%
40.31
|
2.02%
49.46
|
1.1%
91.02
|
0.45%
223.36
|
0.15%
685.4
|
| 4 |
0.43%
232.56
|
0.7%
142.67
|
0.57%
175.07
|
0.31%
322.16
|
0.13%
790.51
|
0.04%
2427.18
|
| 5 |
0.1%
1028.81
|
0.16%
631.31
|
0.13%
774.59
|
0.07%
1426.53
|
0.03%
3496.5
|
0.01%
10752.69
|
Any other score (6+ goals either side)
0.77%
·
Fair:
130.11
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| 1.5 | 31.19% | 68.81% |
| 2.5 | 10.57% | 89.43% |
| 3.5 | 2.8% | 97.2% |
| 4.5 | 0.61% | 99.39% |
Away Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 80.41% | 19.59% |
| 1.5 | 48.47% | 51.53% |
| 2.5 | 22.44% | 77.56% |
| 3.5 | 8.3% | 91.7% |
| 4.5 | 2.54% | 97.46% |
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
| Goals | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.33% | 15.80 |
| 1 | 17.47% | 5.72 |
| 2 | 24.11% | 4.15 |
| 3 | 22.18% | 4.51 |
| 4 | 15.30% | 6.53 |
| 5+ | 14.61% | 6.84 |
|
Over 2.5 52.1%
Under 2.5 47.9%
|
||
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win
25.47%
Draw
26.09%
Away Win
48.44%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.1%
Under 2.5
47.9%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes
54.43%
No
45.57%
Asian Handicap Probability
?
Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model.
Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines.
Home Handicap
| Line | Home Side | Push | Away Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 3.14% 31.84 | 7.17% 13.95 | 89.69% 1.11 |
| -1.5 | 10.31% 9.7 | — | 89.69% 1.11 |
| -1.0 | 10.31% 9.7 | 16.1% 6.21 | 73.59% 1.36 |
| -0.5 | 26.41% 3.79 | — | 73.59% 1.36 |
| 0 (PK) | 26.41% 3.79 | 24.59% 4.07 | 49.0% 2.04 |
| +0.5 | 51.0% 1.96 | — | 49.0% 2.04 |
| +1.0 | 51.0% 1.96 | 23.23% 4.31 | 25.77% 3.88 |
| +1.5 | 74.23% 1.35 | — | 25.77% 3.88 |
| +2.0 | 74.23% 1.35 | 14.92% 6.7 | 10.86% 9.21 |
HOW THE MODEL WORKS
Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output
All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).
Limits of the Poisson model
Strong model, with caveats:
- Independent goals = simplifying assumption
- Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
- Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
SHARE THIS TOOL
How to use the Poisson calculator
- Enter the home xG
- Enter the away xG
- Click Calculate (or use live update)
- Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions
For anyone doing data-led football work.
Why Poisson helps xG models
xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.
Benefits such as
- Less noise from finishing luck
- Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
- Fair-odds from clean probabilities
- Spot model vs book value
Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.
Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.
Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).
Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source
Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.
Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.
