Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.65%
Fair Odds 2.46
Draw
24.25%
Fair Odds 4.12
Away Win
35.1%
Fair Odds 2.85
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.83% Fair Odds 10.17

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.46 —
Draw 4.12 —
Away Win 2.85 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.83% 10.17
2 2-1 8.51% 11.76
3 1-2 7.96% 12.56
4 2-2 6.89% 14.52
5 1-0 6.07% 16.48
6 0-1 5.68% 17.59
7 2-0 5.25% 19.05
8 3-1 4.9% 20.39
9 0-2 4.6% 21.72
10 1-3 4.3% 23.25
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.51%
28.5
5.68%
17.59
4.6%
21.72
2.49%
40.23
1.01%
99.32
0.33%
306.56
1
6.07%
16.48
9.83%
10.17
7.96%
12.56
4.3%
23.25
1.74%
57.41
0.56%
177.18
2
5.25%
19.05
8.51%
11.76
6.89%
14.52
3.72%
26.88
1.51%
66.37
0.49%
204.83
3
3.03%
33.03
4.9%
20.39
3.97%
25.17
2.15%
46.61
0.87%
115.09
0.28%
355.24
4
1.31%
76.37
2.12%
47.14
1.72%
58.2
0.93%
107.77
0.38%
266.1
0.12%
821.02
5
0.45%
220.7
0.73%
136.24
0.59%
168.21
0.32%
311.53
0.13%
769.23
0.04%
2375.3
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.5% · Fair: 66.62
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.27% 17.73%
1.5 51.6% 48.4%
2.5 25.07% 74.93%
3.5 9.77% 90.23%
4.5 3.16% 96.84%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.21% 19.79%
1.5 48.15% 51.85%
2.5 22.18% 77.82%
3.5 8.16% 91.84%
4.5 2.48% 97.52%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.51% 28.50
1 11.75% 8.51
2 19.69% 5.08
3 21.98% 4.55
4 18.41% 5.43
5+ 24.66% 4.06
Over 2.5 65.05% Under 2.5 34.95%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.65%
Draw 24.25%
Away Win 35.10%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 65.05%
Under 2.5 34.95%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 65.99%
No 34.01%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.05% 11.05 12.23% 8.17 78.72% 1.27
-1.5 21.28% 4.7 — 78.72% 1.27
-1.0 21.28% 4.7 19.62% 5.1 59.1% 1.69
-0.5 40.9% 2.44 — 59.1% 1.69
0 (PK) 40.9% 2.44 22.8% 4.39 36.3% 2.75
+0.5 63.7% 1.57 — 36.3% 2.75
+1.0 63.7% 1.57 18.37% 5.44 17.93% 5.58
+1.5 82.07% 1.22 — 17.93% 5.58
+2.0 82.07% 1.22 10.73% 9.32 7.2% 13.89

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.