Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.1%
Fair Odds 2.93
Draw
25.23%
Fair Odds 3.96
Away Win
40.67%
Fair Odds 2.46
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.77% Fair Odds 9.29

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.93 —
Draw 3.96 —
Away Win 2.46 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.77% 9.29
2 1-2 8.72% 11.47
3 2-1 8.02% 12.47
4 0-1 7.23% 13.84
5 1-0 6.65% 15.05
6 2-2 6.5% 15.39
7 0-2 5.85% 17.09
8 2-0 4.95% 20.2
9 1-3 4.71% 21.24
10 0-0 4.46% 22.42
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.46%
22.42
7.23%
13.84
5.85%
17.09
3.16%
31.64
1.28%
78.12
0.41%
241.14
1
6.65%
15.05
10.77%
9.29
8.72%
11.47
4.71%
21.24
1.91%
52.44
0.62%
161.84
2
4.95%
20.2
8.02%
12.47
6.5%
15.39
3.51%
28.5
1.42%
70.38
0.46%
217.25
3
2.46%
40.67
3.98%
25.1
3.23%
30.99
1.74%
57.39
0.71%
141.7
0.23%
437.45
4
0.92%
109.17
1.48%
67.39
1.2%
83.2
0.65%
154.08
0.26%
380.37
0.09%
1173.71
5
0.27%
366.3
0.44%
226.14
0.36%
279.17
0.19%
517.06
0.08%
1277.14
0.03%
3937.01
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.07% · Fair: 93.58
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.46% 22.54%
1.5 43.88% 56.12%
2.5 18.86% 81.14%
3.5 6.44% 93.56%
4.5 1.81% 98.19%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.21% 19.79%
1.5 48.15% 51.85%
2.5 22.18% 77.82%
3.5 8.16% 91.84%
4.5 2.48% 97.52%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.46% 22.42
1 13.87% 7.21
2 21.57% 4.64
3 22.36% 4.47
4 17.39% 5.75
5+ 20.35% 4.91
Over 2.5 60.1% Under 2.5 39.9%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.10%
Draw 25.23%
Away Win 40.67%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.1%
Under 2.5 39.9%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.13%
No 37.87%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.33% 15.79 10.35% 9.66 83.32% 1.2
-1.5 16.68% 5.99 — 83.32% 1.2
-1.0 16.68% 5.99 18.63% 5.37 64.69% 1.55
-0.5 35.31% 2.83 — 64.69% 1.55
0 (PK) 35.31% 2.83 23.75% 4.21 40.93% 2.44
+0.5 59.07% 1.69 — 40.93% 2.44
+1.0 59.07% 1.69 20.25% 4.94 20.68% 4.84
+1.5 79.32% 1.26 — 20.68% 4.84
+2.0 79.32% 1.26 12.24% 8.17 8.45% 11.84

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.