Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.47%
Fair Odds 3.08
Draw
25.47%
Fair Odds 3.93
Away Win
42.06%
Fair Odds 2.38
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.0% Fair Odds 9.09

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.08 —
Draw 3.93 —
Away Win 2.38 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.0% 9.09
2 1-2 8.91% 11.22
3 2-1 7.81% 12.8
4 0-1 7.75% 12.9
5 1-0 6.79% 14.72
6 2-2 6.33% 15.8
7 0-2 6.28% 15.93
8 2-0 4.82% 20.74
9 1-3 4.81% 20.78
10 0-0 4.78% 20.91
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.78%
20.91
7.75%
12.9
6.28%
15.93
3.39%
29.5
1.37%
72.84
0.44%
224.82
1
6.79%
14.72
11.0%
9.09
8.91%
11.22
4.81%
20.78
1.95%
51.3
0.63%
158.33
2
4.82%
20.74
7.81%
12.8
6.33%
15.8
3.42%
29.26
1.38%
72.25
0.45%
223.02
3
2.28%
43.81
3.7%
27.04
3.0%
33.38
1.62%
61.82
0.66%
152.65
0.21%
471.03
4
0.81%
123.4
1.31%
76.17
1.06%
94.04
0.57%
174.16
0.23%
429.92
0.08%
1328.02
5
0.23%
434.59
0.37%
268.24
0.3%
331.13
0.16%
613.12
0.07%
1515.15
0.02%
4672.9
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.98% · Fair: 101.99
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.21% 19.79%
1.5 48.15% 51.85%
2.5 22.18% 77.82%
3.5 8.16% 91.84%
4.5 2.48% 97.52%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.78% 20.91
1 14.54% 6.88
2 22.10% 4.52
3 22.40% 4.46
4 17.02% 5.87
5+ 19.15% 5.22
Over 2.5 58.57% Under 2.5 41.43%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.47%
Draw 25.47%
Away Win 42.06%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.57%
Under 2.5 41.43%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.82%
No 39.18%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.63% 17.76 9.76% 10.24 84.61% 1.18
-1.5 15.39% 6.5 — 84.61% 1.18
-1.0 15.39% 6.5 18.25% 5.48 66.36% 1.51
-0.5 33.64% 2.97 — 66.36% 1.51
0 (PK) 33.64% 2.97 23.99% 4.17 42.37% 2.36
+0.5 57.63% 1.74 — 42.37% 2.36
+1.0 57.63% 1.74 20.82% 4.8 21.55% 4.64
+1.5 78.45% 1.27 — 21.55% 4.64
+2.0 78.45% 1.27 12.71% 7.87 8.85% 11.3

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.