Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
48.32%
Fair Odds 2.07
Draw
22.49%
Fair Odds 4.45
Away Win
29.19%
Fair Odds 3.43
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 8.7% Fair Odds 11.5

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.07 —
Draw 4.45 —
Away Win 3.43 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 8.7% 11.5
2 1-1 8.36% 11.96
3 2-2 7.0% 14.28
4 1-2 6.73% 14.85
5 3-1 6.03% 16.58
6 2-0 5.4% 18.51
7 1-0 5.19% 19.25
8 3-2 4.85% 20.6
9 0-1 4.02% 24.87
10 2-3 3.76% 26.61
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.5%
40.04
4.02%
24.87
3.24%
30.9
1.74%
57.57
0.7%
143.04
0.23%
444.25
1
5.19%
19.25
8.36%
11.96
6.73%
14.85
3.61%
27.68
1.45%
68.77
0.47%
213.58
2
5.4%
18.51
8.7%
11.5
7.0%
14.28
3.76%
26.61
1.51%
66.12
0.49%
205.34
3
3.75%
26.7
6.03%
16.58
4.85%
20.6
2.61%
38.39
1.05%
95.37
0.34%
296.21
4
1.95%
51.35
3.14%
31.89
2.52%
39.62
1.35%
73.82
0.55%
183.42
0.18%
569.48
5
0.81%
123.43
1.3%
76.66
1.05%
95.23
0.56%
177.46
0.23%
440.92
0.07%
1369.86
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.57% · Fair: 38.89
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 87.51% 12.49%
1.5 61.52% 38.48%
2.5 34.5% 65.5%
3.5 15.76% 84.24%
4.5 6.01% 93.98%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.01% 19.99%
1.5 47.83% 52.17%
2.5 21.92% 78.08%
3.5 8.02% 91.98%
4.5 2.42% 97.58%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.50% 40.04
1 9.21% 10.85
2 17.00% 5.88
3 20.91% 4.78
4 19.29% 5.18
5+ 31.08% 3.22
Over 2.5 71.29% Under 2.5 28.71%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 48.32%
Draw 22.49%
Away Win 29.19%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 71.29%
Under 2.5 28.71%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 70.01%
No 29.99%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 13.83% 7.23 14.61% 6.85 71.56% 1.4
-1.5 28.44% 3.52 — 71.56% 1.4
-1.0 28.44% 3.52 20.35% 4.91 51.21% 1.95
-0.5 48.79% 2.05 — 51.21% 1.95
0 (PK) 48.79% 2.05 21.09% 4.74 30.12% 3.32
+0.5 69.88% 1.43 — 30.12% 3.32
+1.0 69.88% 1.43 15.76% 6.35 14.36% 6.96
+1.5 85.64% 1.17 — 14.36% 6.96
+2.0 85.64% 1.17 8.75% 11.43 5.61% 17.83

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.