Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.66%
Fair Odds 2.8
Draw
25.05%
Fair Odds 3.99
Away Win
39.29%
Fair Odds 2.55
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.59% Fair Odds 9.45

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.8 —
Draw 3.99 —
Away Win 2.55 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.59% 9.45
2 1-2 8.52% 11.73
3 2-1 8.21% 12.19
4 0-1 6.83% 14.64
5 2-2 6.61% 15.14
6 1-0 6.58% 15.21
7 0-2 5.5% 18.19
8 2-0 5.1% 19.62
9 1-3 4.57% 21.86
10 0-0 4.24% 23.57
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.24%
23.57
6.83%
14.64
5.5%
18.19
2.95%
33.89
1.19%
84.2
0.38%
261.44
1
6.58%
15.21
10.59%
9.45
8.52%
11.73
4.57%
21.86
1.84%
54.32
0.59%
168.69
2
5.1%
19.62
8.21%
12.19
6.61%
15.14
3.54%
28.21
1.43%
70.09
0.46%
217.68
3
2.63%
37.98
4.24%
23.59
3.41%
29.3
1.83%
54.6
0.74%
135.65
0.24%
421.23
4
1.02%
98.01
1.64%
60.87
1.32%
75.62
0.71%
140.9
0.29%
350.02
0.09%
1086.96
5
0.32%
316.16
0.51%
196.35
0.41%
243.96
0.22%
454.55
0.09%
1128.67
0.03%
3508.77
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.14% · Fair: 87.83
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.78% 21.22%
1.5 45.88% 54.12%
2.5 20.38% 79.62%
3.5 7.21% 92.79%
4.5 2.1% 97.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.01% 19.99%
1.5 47.83% 52.17%
2.5 21.92% 78.08%
3.5 8.02% 91.98%
4.5 2.42% 97.58%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.24% 23.57
1 13.41% 7.46
2 21.18% 4.72
3 22.31% 4.48
4 17.63% 5.67
5+ 21.23% 4.71
Over 2.5 61.17% Under 2.5 38.83%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.66%
Draw 25.05%
Away Win 39.29%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 61.17%
Under 2.5 38.83%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 63.03%
No 36.97%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.02% 14.25 10.9% 9.17 82.08% 1.22
-1.5 17.92% 5.58 — 82.08% 1.22
-1.0 17.92% 5.58 19.0% 5.26 63.08% 1.59
-0.5 36.92% 2.71 — 63.08% 1.59
0 (PK) 36.92% 2.71 23.58% 4.24 39.5% 2.53
+0.5 60.5% 1.65 — 39.5% 2.53
+1.0 60.5% 1.65 19.74% 5.07 19.76% 5.06
+1.5 80.24% 1.25 — 19.76% 5.06
+2.0 80.24% 1.25 11.76% 8.5 8.0% 12.5

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.