Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.51%
Fair Odds 2.9
Draw
25.25%
Fair Odds 3.96
Away Win
40.25%
Fair Odds 2.48
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.77% Fair Odds 9.28

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.9 —
Draw 3.96 —
Away Win 2.48 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.77% 9.28
2 1-2 8.67% 11.53
3 2-1 8.08% 12.38
4 0-1 7.18% 13.93
5 1-0 6.69% 14.95
6 2-2 6.5% 15.38
7 0-2 5.78% 17.3
8 2-0 5.02% 19.93
9 1-3 4.65% 21.49
10 0-0 4.46% 22.42
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.46%
22.42
7.18%
13.93
5.78%
17.3
3.1%
32.24
1.25%
80.09
0.4%
248.69
1
6.69%
14.95
10.77%
9.28
8.67%
11.53
4.65%
21.49
1.87%
53.39
0.6%
165.81
2
5.02%
19.93
8.08%
12.38
6.5%
15.38
3.49%
28.65
1.4%
71.19
0.45%
221.09
3
2.51%
39.86
4.04%
24.76
3.25%
30.76
1.75%
57.31
0.7%
142.37
0.23%
442.09
4
0.94%
106.29
1.51%
66.02
1.22%
82.01
0.65%
152.81
0.26%
379.65
0.08%
1179.25
5
0.28%
354.36
0.45%
220.07
0.37%
273.37
0.2%
509.42
0.08%
1265.82
0.03%
3937.01
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.06% · Fair: 93.94
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.69% 22.31%
1.5 44.22% 55.78%
2.5 19.12% 80.88%
3.5 6.56% 93.44%
4.5 1.86% 98.14%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.01% 19.99%
1.5 47.83% 52.17%
2.5 21.92% 78.08%
3.5 8.02% 91.98%
4.5 2.42% 97.58%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.46% 22.42
1 13.87% 7.21
2 21.57% 4.64
3 22.36% 4.47
4 17.39% 5.75
5+ 20.35% 4.91
Over 2.5 60.1% Under 2.5 39.9%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.51%
Draw 25.25%
Away Win 40.25%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.1%
Under 2.5 39.9%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.16%
No 37.84%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.48% 15.43 10.49% 9.53 83.02% 1.2
-1.5 16.98% 5.89 — 83.02% 1.2
-1.0 16.98% 5.89 18.76% 5.33 64.26% 1.56
-0.5 35.74% 2.8 — 64.26% 1.56
0 (PK) 35.74% 2.8 23.77% 4.21 40.49% 2.47
+0.5 59.51% 1.68 — 40.49% 2.47
+1.0 59.51% 1.68 20.14% 4.97 20.36% 4.91
+1.5 79.64% 1.26 — 20.36% 4.91
+2.0 79.64% 1.26 12.09% 8.27 8.27% 12.09

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.