Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.27%
Fair Odds 2.92
Draw
25.28%
Fair Odds 3.96
Away Win
40.44%
Fair Odds 2.47
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.81% Fair Odds 9.25

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.92 —
Draw 3.96 —
Away Win 2.47 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.81% 9.25
2 1-2 8.7% 11.49
3 2-1 8.05% 12.42
4 0-1 7.25% 13.79
5 1-0 6.71% 14.9
6 2-2 6.48% 15.43
7 0-2 5.84% 17.13
8 2-0 5.0% 20.0
9 1-3 4.67% 21.42
10 0-0 4.5% 22.2
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.5%
22.2
7.25%
13.79
5.84%
17.13
3.13%
31.91
1.26%
79.29
0.41%
246.24
1
6.71%
14.9
10.81%
9.25
8.7%
11.49
4.67%
21.42
1.88%
53.21
0.61%
165.26
2
5.0%
20.0
8.05%
12.42
6.48%
15.43
3.48%
28.75
1.4%
71.43
0.45%
221.83
3
2.48%
40.26
4.0%
25.01
3.22%
31.07
1.73%
57.89
0.7%
143.82
0.22%
446.63
4
0.93%
108.08
1.49%
67.14
1.2%
83.4
0.64%
155.4
0.26%
386.1
0.08%
1199.04
5
0.28%
362.71
0.44%
225.28
0.36%
279.88
0.19%
521.38
0.08%
1295.34
0.02%
4016.06
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.05% · Fair: 95.18
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.46% 22.54%
1.5 43.88% 56.12%
2.5 18.86% 81.14%
3.5 6.44% 93.56%
4.5 1.81% 98.19%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.01% 19.99%
1.5 47.83% 52.17%
2.5 21.92% 78.08%
3.5 8.02% 91.98%
4.5 2.42% 97.58%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.50% 22.20
1 13.97% 7.16
2 21.65% 4.62
3 22.37% 4.47
4 17.34% 5.77
5+ 20.18% 4.96
Over 2.5 59.88% Under 2.5 40.12%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.27%
Draw 25.28%
Away Win 40.44%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 59.88%
Under 2.5 40.12%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.98%
No 38.02%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.38% 15.68 10.41% 9.61 83.21% 1.2
-1.5 16.79% 5.96 — 83.21% 1.2
-1.0 16.79% 5.96 18.71% 5.34 64.5% 1.55
-0.5 35.5% 2.82 — 64.5% 1.55
0 (PK) 35.5% 2.82 23.81% 4.2 40.7% 2.46
+0.5 59.3% 1.69 — 40.7% 2.46
+1.0 59.3% 1.69 20.22% 4.95 20.48% 4.88
+1.5 79.52% 1.26 — 20.48% 4.88
+2.0 79.52% 1.26 12.16% 8.23 8.32% 12.01

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.