Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.53%
Fair Odds 3.28
Draw
25.81%
Fair Odds 3.87
Away Win
43.66%
Fair Odds 2.29
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.32% Fair Odds 8.83

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.28 —
Draw 3.87 —
Away Win 2.29 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.32% 8.83
2 1-2 9.11% 10.97
3 0-1 8.51% 11.75
4 2-1 7.53% 13.28
5 1-0 7.03% 14.22
6 0-2 6.85% 14.59
7 2-2 6.06% 16.5
8 0-0 5.29% 18.92
9 1-3 4.89% 20.45
10 2-0 4.68% 21.39
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.29%
18.92
8.51%
11.75
6.85%
14.59
3.68%
27.2
1.48%
67.57
0.48%
209.82
1
7.03%
14.22
11.32%
8.83
9.11%
10.97
4.89%
20.45
1.97%
50.8
0.63%
157.78
2
4.68%
21.39
7.53%
13.28
6.06%
16.5
3.25%
30.75
1.31%
76.39
0.42%
237.25
3
2.07%
48.24
3.34%
29.96
2.69%
37.22
1.44%
69.36
0.58%
172.32
0.19%
535.05
4
0.69%
145.1
1.11%
90.11
0.89%
111.94
0.48%
208.59
0.19%
518.13
0.06%
1610.31
5
0.18%
545.55
0.3%
338.75
0.24%
420.88
0.13%
784.31
0.05%
1949.32
0.02%
6060.61
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.87% · Fair: 115.01
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.55% 26.45%
1.5 38.38% 61.62%
2.5 14.99% 85.01%
3.5 4.61% 95.39%
4.5 1.17% 98.83%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.01% 19.99%
1.5 47.83% 52.17%
2.5 21.92% 78.08%
3.5 8.02% 91.98%
4.5 2.42% 97.58%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.29% 18.92
1 15.54% 6.43
2 22.85% 4.38
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.46% 6.08
5+ 17.48% 5.72
Over 2.5 56.32% Under 2.5 43.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.53%
Draw 25.81%
Away Win 43.66%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.32%
Under 2.5 43.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.85%
No 41.15%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.82% 20.75 9.05% 11.05 86.13% 1.16
-1.5 13.87% 7.21 — 86.13% 1.16
-1.0 13.87% 7.21 17.78% 5.62 68.35% 1.46
-0.5 31.65% 3.16 — 68.35% 1.46
0 (PK) 31.65% 3.16 24.32% 4.11 44.03% 2.27
+0.5 55.97% 1.79 — 44.03% 2.27
+1.0 55.97% 1.79 21.52% 4.65 22.51% 4.44
+1.5 77.49% 1.29 — 22.51% 4.44
+2.0 77.49% 1.29 13.26% 7.54 9.26% 10.8

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.