Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
26.02%
Fair Odds 3.84
Draw
26.24%
Fair Odds 3.81
Away Win
47.74%
Fair Odds 2.09
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.73% Fair Odds 8.52

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.84 —
Draw 3.81 —
Away Win 2.09 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.73% 8.52
2 0-1 10.29% 9.72
3 1-2 9.45% 10.59
4 0-2 8.29% 12.07
5 1-0 7.29% 13.72
6 2-1 6.69% 14.95
7 0-0 6.39% 15.64
8 2-2 5.38% 18.57
9 1-3 5.07% 19.73
10 0-3 4.45% 22.49
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.39%
15.64
10.29%
9.72
8.29%
12.07
4.45%
22.49
1.79%
55.88
0.58%
173.52
1
7.29%
13.72
11.73%
8.52
9.45%
10.59
5.07%
19.73
2.04%
49.01
0.66%
152.21
2
4.15%
24.07
6.69%
14.95
5.38%
18.57
2.89%
34.61
1.16%
85.98
0.37%
267.02
3
1.58%
63.35
2.54%
39.35
2.05%
48.88
1.1%
91.08
0.44%
226.3
0.14%
702.74
4
0.45%
222.27
0.72%
138.06
0.58%
171.5
0.31%
319.59
0.13%
794.28
0.04%
2463.05
5
0.1%
974.66
0.17%
605.69
0.13%
752.45
0.07%
1402.52
0.03%
3484.32
0.01%
10869.57
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.74% · Fair: 135.65
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 68.02% 31.98%
1.5 31.56% 68.44%
2.5 10.78% 89.22%
3.5 2.88% 97.12%
4.5 0.63% 99.37%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 80.01% 19.99%
1.5 47.83% 52.17%
2.5 21.92% 78.08%
3.5 8.02% 91.98%
4.5 2.42% 97.58%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.39% 15.64
1 17.58% 5.69
2 24.17% 4.14
3 22.16% 4.51
4 15.23% 6.56
5+ 14.46% 6.91
Over 2.5 51.85% Under 2.5 48.15%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 26.02%
Draw 26.24%
Away Win 47.74%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 51.85%
Under 2.5 48.15%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.42%
No 45.58%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.26% 30.66 7.36% 13.6 89.38% 1.12
-1.5 10.62% 9.42 — 89.38% 1.12
-1.0 10.62% 9.42 16.37% 6.11 73.02% 1.37
-0.5 26.98% 3.71 — 73.02% 1.37
0 (PK) 26.98% 3.71 24.74% 4.04 48.27% 2.07
+0.5 51.73% 1.93 — 48.27% 2.07
+1.0 51.73% 1.93 23.11% 4.33 25.16% 3.97
+1.5 74.84% 1.34 — 25.16% 3.97
+2.0 74.84% 1.34 14.67% 6.82 10.49% 9.53

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.