Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
48.72%
Fair Odds 2.05
Draw
22.44%
Fair Odds 4.46
Away Win
28.84%
Fair Odds 3.47
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 8.73% Fair Odds 11.46

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.05 —
Draw 4.46 —
Away Win 3.47 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 8.73% 11.46
2 1-1 8.35% 11.98
3 2-2 6.98% 14.32
4 1-2 6.68% 14.97
5 3-1 6.08% 16.45
6 2-0 5.45% 18.33
7 1-0 5.22% 19.16
8 3-2 4.86% 20.56
9 0-1 4.0% 25.03
10 3-0 3.8% 26.32
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.5%
40.04
4.0%
25.03
3.2%
31.28
1.7%
58.66
0.68%
146.65
0.22%
458.3
1
5.22%
19.16
8.35%
11.98
6.68%
14.97
3.56%
28.07
1.43%
70.17
0.46%
219.25
2
5.45%
18.33
8.73%
11.46
6.98%
14.32
3.72%
26.86
1.49%
67.15
0.48%
209.82
3
3.8%
26.32
6.08%
16.45
4.86%
20.56
2.59%
38.55
1.04%
96.38
0.33%
301.2
4
1.99%
50.37
3.18%
31.48
2.54%
39.35
1.36%
73.78
0.54%
184.47
0.17%
576.37
5
0.83%
120.5
1.33%
75.31
1.06%
94.14
0.57%
176.52
0.23%
441.31
0.07%
1379.31
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.59% · Fair: 38.55
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 87.63% 12.37%
1.5 61.78% 38.22%
2.5 34.77% 65.23%
3.5 15.95% 84.05%
4.5 6.11% 93.89%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 79.81% 20.19%
1.5 47.51% 52.49%
2.5 21.66% 78.34%
3.5 7.88% 92.12%
4.5 2.37% 97.63%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.50% 40.04
1 9.21% 10.85
2 17.00% 5.88
3 20.91% 4.78
4 19.29% 5.18
5+ 31.08% 3.22
Over 2.5 71.29% Under 2.5 28.71%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 48.72%
Draw 22.44%
Away Win 28.84%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 71.29%
Under 2.5 28.71%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 69.94%
No 30.06%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 14.06% 7.11 14.73% 6.79 71.21% 1.4
-1.5 28.79% 3.47 — 71.21% 1.4
-1.0 28.79% 3.47 20.42% 4.9 50.79% 1.97
-0.5 49.21% 2.03 — 50.79% 1.97
0 (PK) 49.21% 2.03 21.04% 4.75 29.75% 3.36
+0.5 70.25% 1.42 — 29.75% 3.36
+1.0 70.25% 1.42 15.63% 6.4 14.12% 7.08
+1.5 85.88% 1.16 — 14.12% 7.08
+2.0 85.88% 1.16 8.63% 11.59 5.48% 18.23

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.