Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.69%
Fair Odds 2.1
Draw
22.72%
Fair Odds 4.4
Away Win
29.59%
Fair Odds 3.38
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 8.74% Fair Odds 11.44

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.1 —
Draw 4.4 —
Away Win 3.38 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 8.74% 11.44
2 1-1 8.57% 11.67
3 2-2 6.99% 14.3
4 1-2 6.86% 14.59
5 3-1 5.94% 16.83
6 2-0 5.46% 18.31
7 1-0 5.36% 18.67
8 3-2 4.75% 21.03
9 0-1 4.2% 23.81
10 2-3 3.73% 26.82
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.63%
38.09
4.2%
23.81
3.36%
29.76
1.79%
55.8
0.72%
139.49
0.23%
435.92
1
5.36%
18.67
8.57%
11.67
6.86%
14.59
3.66%
27.35
1.46%
68.38
0.47%
213.68
2
5.46%
18.31
8.74%
11.44
6.99%
14.3
3.73%
26.82
1.49%
67.04
0.48%
209.51
3
3.71%
26.92
5.94%
16.83
4.75%
21.03
2.54%
39.44
1.01%
98.59
0.32%
308.07
4
1.89%
52.79
3.03%
32.99
2.42%
41.24
1.29%
77.32
0.52%
193.31
0.17%
604.23
5
0.77%
129.38
1.24%
80.86
0.99%
101.07
0.53%
189.5
0.21%
473.71
0.07%
1481.48
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.4% · Fair: 41.72
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 87.0% 13.0%
1.5 60.47% 39.53%
2.5 33.41% 66.59%
3.5 15.02% 84.98%
4.5 5.63% 94.37%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 79.81% 20.19%
1.5 47.51% 52.49%
2.5 21.66% 78.34%
3.5 7.88% 92.12%
4.5 2.37% 97.63%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.63% 38.09
1 9.56% 10.46
2 17.39% 5.75
3 21.10% 4.74
4 19.20% 5.21
5+ 30.12% 3.32
Over 2.5 70.43% Under 2.5 29.57%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.69%
Draw 22.72%
Away Win 29.59%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 70.43%
Under 2.5 29.57%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 69.43%
No 30.57%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 13.33% 7.5 14.44% 6.93 72.23% 1.38
-1.5 27.77% 3.6 — 72.23% 1.38
-1.0 27.77% 3.6 20.38% 4.91 51.85% 1.93
-0.5 48.15% 2.08 — 51.85% 1.93
0 (PK) 48.15% 2.08 21.31% 4.69 30.54% 3.27
+0.5 69.46% 1.44 — 30.54% 3.27
+1.0 69.46% 1.44 15.98% 6.26 14.55% 6.87
+1.5 85.44% 1.17 — 14.55% 6.87
+2.0 85.44% 1.17 8.88% 11.26 5.67% 17.63

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.