Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.37%
Fair Odds 2.48
Draw
24.45%
Fair Odds 4.09
Away Win
35.18%
Fair Odds 2.84
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.03% Fair Odds 9.97

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.48 —
Draw 4.09 —
Away Win 2.84 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.03% 9.97
2 2-1 8.53% 11.73
3 1-2 8.03% 12.46
4 2-2 6.82% 14.66
5 1-0 6.27% 15.95
6 0-1 5.9% 16.95
7 2-0 5.33% 18.76
8 3-1 4.83% 20.69
9 0-2 4.72% 21.18
10 1-3 4.28% 23.36
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.69%
27.11
5.9%
16.95
4.72%
21.18
2.52%
39.72
1.01%
99.29
0.32%
310.27
1
6.27%
15.95
10.03%
9.97
8.03%
12.46
4.28%
23.36
1.71%
58.4
0.55%
182.52
2
5.33%
18.76
8.53%
11.73
6.82%
14.66
3.64%
27.48
1.46%
68.71
0.47%
214.73
3
3.02%
33.11
4.83%
20.69
3.87%
25.87
2.06%
48.5
0.82%
121.26
0.26%
378.93
4
1.28%
77.91
2.05%
48.69
1.64%
60.87
0.88%
114.13
0.35%
285.31
0.11%
891.27
5
0.44%
229.15
0.7%
143.2
0.56%
179.02
0.3%
335.68
0.12%
838.93
0.04%
2624.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.4% · Fair: 71.49
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.73% 18.27%
1.5 50.68% 49.32%
2.5 24.28% 75.72%
3.5 9.32% 90.68%
4.5 2.96% 97.04%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 79.81% 20.19%
1.5 47.51% 52.49%
2.5 21.66% 78.34%
3.5 7.88% 92.12%
4.5 2.37% 97.63%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.69% 27.11
1 12.17% 8.22
2 20.08% 4.98
3 22.09% 4.53
4 18.23% 5.49
5+ 23.74% 4.21
Over 2.5 64.06% Under 2.5 35.94%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.37%
Draw 24.45%
Away Win 35.18%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 64.06%
Under 2.5 35.94%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 65.23%
No 34.77%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.8% 11.37 12.14% 8.24 79.06% 1.26
-1.5 20.94% 4.78 — 79.06% 1.26
-1.0 20.94% 4.78 19.67% 5.08 59.39% 1.68
-0.5 40.61% 2.46 — 59.39% 1.68
0 (PK) 40.61% 2.46 23.0% 4.35 36.4% 2.75
+0.5 63.6% 1.57 — 36.4% 2.75
+1.0 63.6% 1.57 18.51% 5.4 17.88% 5.59
+1.5 82.12% 1.22 — 17.88% 5.59
+2.0 82.12% 1.22 10.75% 9.3 7.13% 14.03

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.