Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
24.73%
Fair Odds 4.04
Draw
26.42%
Fair Odds 3.78
Away Win
48.85%
Fair Odds 2.05
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.85% Fair Odds 8.44

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.04 —
Draw 3.78 —
Away Win 2.05 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.85% 8.44
2 0-1 10.97% 9.12
3 1-2 9.48% 10.55
4 0-2 8.78% 11.39
5 1-0 7.4% 13.5
6 0-0 6.86% 14.59
7 2-1 6.4% 15.63
8 2-2 5.12% 19.54
9 1-3 5.05% 19.78
10 0-3 4.68% 21.36
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.86%
14.59
10.97%
9.12
8.78%
11.39
4.68%
21.36
1.87%
53.41
0.6%
166.92
1
7.4%
13.5
11.85%
8.44
9.48%
10.55
5.05%
19.78
2.02%
49.46
0.65%
154.56
2
4.0%
25.01
6.4%
15.63
5.12%
19.54
2.73%
36.63
1.09%
91.58
0.35%
286.2
3
1.44%
69.47
2.3%
43.42
1.84%
54.27
0.98%
101.76
0.39%
254.39
0.13%
794.91
4
0.39%
257.27
0.62%
160.8
0.5%
201.01
0.27%
376.93
0.11%
942.51
0.03%
2941.18
5
0.08%
1190.48
0.13%
744.6
0.11%
930.23
0.06%
1745.2
0.02%
4366.81
0.01%
13698.63
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.69% · Fair: 144.59
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 66.04% 33.96%
1.5 29.36% 70.64%
2.5 9.56% 90.44%
3.5 2.43% 97.57%
4.5 0.5% 99.5%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 79.81% 20.19%
1.5 47.51% 52.49%
2.5 21.66% 78.34%
3.5 7.88% 92.12%
4.5 2.37% 97.63%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.86% 14.59
1 18.37% 5.44
2 24.62% 4.06
3 22.00% 4.55
4 14.74% 6.79
5+ 13.41% 7.46
Over 2.5 50.15% Under 2.5 49.85%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 24.73%
Draw 26.42%
Away Win 48.85%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.15%
Under 2.5 49.85%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.71%
No 47.29%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.86% 34.99 6.86% 14.58 90.28% 1.11
-1.5 9.72% 10.29 — 90.28% 1.11
-1.0 9.72% 10.29 15.93% 6.28 74.35% 1.35
-0.5 25.65% 3.9 — 74.35% 1.35
0 (PK) 25.65% 3.9 24.92% 4.01 49.43% 2.02
+0.5 50.57% 1.98 — 49.43% 2.02
+1.0 50.57% 1.98 23.61% 4.24 25.82% 3.87
+1.5 74.18% 1.35 — 25.82% 3.87
+2.0 74.18% 1.35 15.06% 6.64 10.76% 9.29

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.