Football Poisson Calculator
xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine
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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.11%
Fair Odds
2.37
Draw
24.15%
Fair Odds
4.14
Away Win
33.74%
Fair Odds
2.96
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.78%
Fair Odds 10.23
Match odds & output
FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
| Market | Market Odds | Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. | Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 2.37 | — | |
| Draw | 4.14 | — | |
| Away Win | 2.96 | — |
Find Value Opportunities
Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.
See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
| # | Correct Score | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 9.78% | 10.23 |
| 2 | 2-1 | 8.65% | 11.56 |
| 3 | 1-2 | 7.77% | 12.87 |
| 4 | 2-2 | 6.88% | 14.54 |
| 5 | 1-0 | 6.15% | 16.26 |
| 6 | 0-1 | 5.52% | 18.11 |
| 7 | 2-0 | 5.44% | 18.38 |
| 8 | 3-1 | 5.1% | 19.59 |
| 9 | 0-2 | 4.39% | 22.78 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 4.12% | 24.28 |
SCORE MATRIX
Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
3.47%
28.79
|
5.52%
18.11
|
4.39%
22.78
|
2.33%
42.97
|
0.92%
108.11
|
0.29%
339.9
|
| 1 |
6.15%
16.26
|
9.78%
10.23
|
7.77%
12.87
|
4.12%
24.28
|
1.64%
61.08
|
0.52%
192.05
|
| 2 |
5.44%
18.38
|
8.65%
11.56
|
6.88%
14.54
|
3.65%
27.43
|
1.45%
69.01
|
0.46%
217.01
|
| 3 |
3.21%
31.15
|
5.1%
19.59
|
4.06%
24.64
|
2.15%
46.5
|
0.85%
116.97
|
0.27%
367.78
|
| 4 |
1.42%
70.4
|
2.26%
44.27
|
1.8%
55.69
|
0.95%
105.08
|
0.38%
264.34
|
0.12%
831.26
|
| 5 |
0.5%
198.85
|
0.8%
125.06
|
0.64%
157.31
|
0.34%
296.82
|
0.13%
746.83
|
0.04%
2347.42
|
Any other score (6+ goals either side)
1.54%
·
Fair:
64.85
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 82.97% | 17.03% |
| 1.5 | 52.82% | 47.18% |
| 2.5 | 26.14% | 73.86% |
| 3.5 | 10.39% | 89.61% |
| 4.5 | 3.43% | 96.57% |
Away Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 79.61% | 20.39% |
| 1.5 | 47.18% | 52.82% |
| 2.5 | 21.41% | 78.59% |
| 3.5 | 7.74% | 92.26% |
| 4.5 | 2.31% | 97.69% |
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
| Goals | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.47% | 28.79 |
| 1 | 11.67% | 8.57 |
| 2 | 19.61% | 5.10 |
| 3 | 21.96% | 4.55 |
| 4 | 18.45% | 5.42 |
| 5+ | 24.84% | 4.03 |
|
Over 2.5 65.25%
Under 2.5 34.75%
|
||
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win
42.11%
Draw
24.15%
Away Win
33.74%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.25%
Under 2.5
34.75%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes
66.05%
No
33.95%
Asian Handicap Probability
?
Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model.
Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines.
Home Handicap
| Line | Home Side | Push | Away Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 9.73% 10.28 | 12.72% 7.86 | 77.55% 1.29 |
| -1.5 | 22.45% 4.45 | — | 77.55% 1.29 |
| -1.0 | 22.45% 4.45 | 19.96% 5.01 | 57.59% 1.74 |
| -0.5 | 42.41% 2.36 | — | 57.59% 1.74 |
| 0 (PK) | 42.41% 2.36 | 22.7% 4.4 | 34.89% 2.87 |
| +0.5 | 65.11% 1.54 | — | 34.89% 2.87 |
| +1.0 | 65.11% 1.54 | 17.93% 5.58 | 16.97% 5.89 |
| +1.5 | 83.03% 1.2 | — | 16.97% 5.89 |
| +2.0 | 83.03% 1.2 | 10.27% 9.74 | 6.7% 14.93 |
HOW THE MODEL WORKS
Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output
All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).
Limits of the Poisson model
Strong model, with caveats:
- Independent goals = simplifying assumption
- Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
- Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
SHARE THIS TOOL
How to use the Poisson calculator
- Enter the home xG
- Enter the away xG
- Click Calculate (or use live update)
- Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions
For anyone doing data-led football work.
Why Poisson helps xG models
xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.
Benefits such as
- Less noise from finishing luck
- Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
- Fair-odds from clean probabilities
- Spot model vs book value
Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.
Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.
Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).
Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source
Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.
Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.
