Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.33%
Fair Odds 2.48
Draw
24.53%
Fair Odds 4.08
Away Win
35.14%
Fair Odds 2.85
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.11% Fair Odds 9.89

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.48 —
Draw 4.08 —
Away Win 2.85 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.11% 9.89
2 2-1 8.54% 11.7
3 1-2 8.04% 12.44
4 2-2 6.79% 14.72
5 1-0 6.36% 15.73
6 0-1 5.98% 16.71
7 2-0 5.37% 18.61
8 3-1 4.81% 20.78
9 0-2 4.76% 21.02
10 1-3 4.26% 23.47
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.76%
26.58
5.98%
16.71
4.76%
21.02
2.52%
39.67
1.0%
99.79
0.32%
313.77
1
6.36%
15.73
10.11%
9.89
8.04%
12.44
4.26%
23.47
1.69%
59.05
0.54%
185.7
2
5.37%
18.61
8.54%
11.7
6.79%
14.72
3.6%
27.78
1.43%
69.88
0.46%
219.73
3
3.03%
33.03
4.81%
20.78
3.83%
26.13
2.03%
49.31
0.81%
124.05
0.26%
390.17
4
1.28%
78.19
2.03%
49.18
1.62%
61.86
0.86%
116.71
0.34%
293.6
0.11%
923.36
5
0.43%
231.32
0.69%
145.5
0.55%
183.02
0.29%
345.3
0.12%
868.81
0.04%
2732.24
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.36% · Fair: 73.51
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.55% 18.45%
1.5 50.36% 49.64%
2.5 24.01% 75.99%
3.5 9.17% 90.83%
4.5 2.9% 97.1%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 79.61% 20.39%
1.5 47.18% 52.82%
2.5 21.41% 78.59%
3.5 7.74% 92.26%
4.5 2.31% 97.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.76% 26.58
1 12.34% 8.10
2 20.24% 4.94
3 22.13% 4.52
4 18.15% 5.51
5+ 23.38% 4.28
Over 2.5 63.65% Under 2.5 36.35%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.33%
Draw 24.53%
Away Win 35.14%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 63.65%
Under 2.5 36.35%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 64.92%
No 35.08%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.73% 11.45 12.13% 8.25 79.14% 1.26
-1.5 20.86% 4.79 — 79.14% 1.26
-1.0 20.86% 4.79 19.71% 5.07 59.43% 1.68
-0.5 40.57% 2.46 — 59.43% 1.68
0 (PK) 40.57% 2.46 23.07% 4.33 36.35% 2.75
+0.5 63.65% 1.57 — 36.35% 2.75
+1.0 63.65% 1.57 18.55% 5.39 17.81% 5.62
+1.5 82.19% 1.22 — 17.81% 5.62
+2.0 82.19% 1.22 10.74% 9.32 7.07% 14.14

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.