Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
36.71%
Fair Odds 2.72
Draw
25.02%
Fair Odds 4.0
Away Win
38.26%
Fair Odds 2.61
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.55% Fair Odds 9.48

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.72 —
Draw 4.0 —
Away Win 2.61 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.55% 9.48
2 1-2 8.39% 11.92
3 2-1 8.34% 12.0
4 0-1 6.68% 14.97
5 1-0 6.64% 15.07
6 2-2 6.63% 15.09
7 0-2 5.31% 18.83
8 2-0 5.24% 19.07
9 1-3 4.45% 22.49
10 3-1 4.39% 22.78
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.2%
23.81
6.68%
14.97
5.31%
18.83
2.81%
35.54
1.12%
89.4
0.36%
281.14
1
6.64%
15.07
10.55%
9.48
8.39%
11.92
4.45%
22.49
1.77%
56.58
0.56%
177.94
2
5.24%
19.07
8.34%
12.0
6.63%
15.09
3.51%
28.47
1.4%
71.62
0.44%
225.23
3
2.76%
36.21
4.39%
22.78
3.49%
28.65
1.85%
54.06
0.74%
136.0
0.23%
427.72
4
1.09%
91.68
1.73%
57.66
1.38%
72.53
0.73%
136.86
0.29%
344.23
0.09%
1082.25
5
0.34%
290.11
0.55%
182.48
0.44%
229.52
0.23%
433.09
0.09%
1089.32
0.03%
3424.66
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.15% · Fair: 86.79
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.4% 20.6%
1.5 46.86% 53.14%
2.5 21.15% 78.85%
3.5 7.61% 92.39%
4.5 2.26% 97.74%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 79.61% 20.39%
1.5 47.18% 52.82%
2.5 21.41% 78.59%
3.5 7.74% 92.26%
4.5 2.31% 97.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.20% 23.81
1 13.32% 7.51
2 21.10% 4.74
3 22.30% 4.48
4 17.67% 5.66
5+ 21.41% 4.67
Over 2.5 61.38% Under 2.5 38.62%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 36.71%
Draw 25.02%
Away Win 38.26%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 61.38%
Under 2.5 38.62%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 63.21%
No 36.79%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.45% 13.43 11.27% 8.87 81.28% 1.23
-1.5 18.72% 5.34 — 81.28% 1.23
-1.0 18.72% 5.34 19.29% 5.18 61.99% 1.61
-0.5 38.01% 2.63 — 61.99% 1.61
0 (PK) 38.01% 2.63 23.55% 4.25 38.44% 2.6
+0.5 61.56% 1.62 — 38.44% 2.6
+1.0 61.56% 1.62 19.42% 5.15 19.02% 5.26
+1.5 80.98% 1.23 — 19.02% 5.26
+2.0 80.98% 1.23 11.41% 8.76 7.61% 13.14

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.