Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.46%
Fair Odds 2.99
Draw
25.57%
Fair Odds 3.91
Away Win
40.96%
Fair Odds 2.44
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.06% Fair Odds 9.04

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.99 —
Draw 3.91 —
Away Win 2.44 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.06% 9.04
2 1-2 8.79% 11.37
3 2-1 7.96% 12.56
4 0-1 7.68% 13.02
5 1-0 6.96% 14.37
6 2-2 6.33% 15.79
7 0-2 6.11% 16.37
8 2-0 5.01% 19.96
9 0-0 4.83% 20.7
10 1-3 4.66% 21.45
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.83%
20.7
7.68%
13.02
6.11%
16.37
3.24%
30.89
1.29%
77.72
0.41%
244.38
1
6.96%
14.37
11.06%
9.04
8.79%
11.37
4.66%
21.45
1.85%
53.97
0.59%
169.72
2
5.01%
19.96
7.96%
12.56
6.33%
15.79
3.36%
29.8
1.33%
74.96
0.42%
235.74
3
2.4%
41.59
3.82%
26.16
3.04%
32.9
1.61%
62.08
0.64%
156.18
0.2%
491.16
4
0.87%
115.53
1.38%
72.66
1.09%
91.39
0.58%
172.44
0.23%
433.84
0.07%
1364.26
5
0.25%
401.12
0.4%
252.27
0.32%
317.36
0.17%
598.8
0.07%
1506.02
0.02%
4739.34
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.95% · Fair: 105.16
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.31% 23.69%
1.5 42.19% 57.81%
2.5 17.62% 82.38%
3.5 5.83% 94.17%
4.5 1.59% 98.41%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 79.61% 20.39%
1.5 47.18% 52.82%
2.5 21.41% 78.59%
3.5 7.74% 92.26%
4.5 2.31% 97.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.83% 20.70
1 14.64% 6.83
2 22.18% 4.51
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.97% 5.89
5+ 18.98% 5.27
Over 2.5 58.35% Under 2.5 41.65%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.46%
Draw 25.57%
Away Win 40.96%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.35%
Under 2.5 41.65%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.75%
No 39.25%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.95% 16.81 10.11% 9.89 83.94% 1.19
-1.5 16.06% 6.23 — 83.94% 1.19
-1.0 16.06% 6.23 18.61% 5.37 65.33% 1.53
-0.5 34.67% 2.88 — 65.33% 1.53
0 (PK) 34.67% 2.88 24.09% 4.15 41.24% 2.43
+0.5 58.76% 1.7 — 41.24% 2.43
+1.0 58.76% 1.7 20.55% 4.87 20.68% 4.83
+1.5 79.32% 1.26 — 20.68% 4.83
+2.0 79.32% 1.26 12.33% 8.11 8.36% 11.97

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.