Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
29.44%
Fair Odds 3.4
Draw
26.12%
Fair Odds 3.83
Away Win
44.44%
Fair Odds 2.25
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.56% Fair Odds 8.65

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.4 —
Draw 3.83 —
Away Win 2.25 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.56% 8.65
2 1-2 9.19% 10.88
3 0-1 9.11% 10.98
4 2-1 7.34% 13.62
5 1-0 7.27% 13.75
6 0-2 7.24% 13.81
7 2-2 5.84% 17.13
8 0-0 5.73% 17.46
9 1-3 4.87% 20.52
10 2-0 4.62% 21.65
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.73%
17.46
9.11%
10.98
7.24%
13.81
3.84%
26.06
1.53%
65.57
0.48%
206.19
1
7.27%
13.75
11.56%
8.65
9.19%
10.88
4.87%
20.52
1.94%
51.63
0.62%
162.36
2
4.62%
21.65
7.34%
13.62
5.84%
17.13
3.09%
32.32
1.23%
81.31
0.39%
255.69
3
1.96%
51.15
3.11%
32.17
2.47%
40.46
1.31%
76.35
0.52%
192.05
0.17%
603.86
4
0.62%
161.08
0.99%
101.32
0.78%
127.44
0.42%
240.44
0.17%
604.96
0.05%
1901.14
5
0.16%
634.12
0.25%
398.88
0.2%
501.76
0.11%
946.97
0.04%
2380.95
0.01%
7462.69
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.78% · Fair: 127.53
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.92% 28.08%
1.5 36.25% 63.75%
2.5 13.6% 86.4%
3.5 4.02% 95.98%
4.5 0.97% 99.03%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 79.61% 20.39%
1.5 47.18% 52.82%
2.5 21.41% 78.59%
3.5 7.74% 92.26%
4.5 2.31% 97.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.73% 17.46
1 16.38% 6.11
2 23.42% 4.27
3 22.33% 4.48
4 15.97% 6.26
5+ 16.18% 6.18
Over 2.5 54.47% Under 2.5 45.53%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 29.44%
Draw 26.12%
Away Win 44.44%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 54.47%
Under 2.5 45.53%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 57.25%
No 42.75%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.36% 22.96 8.63% 11.59 87.02% 1.15
-1.5 12.98% 7.7 — 87.02% 1.15
-1.0 12.98% 7.7 17.55% 5.7 69.47% 1.44
-0.5 30.53% 3.28 — 69.47% 1.44
0 (PK) 30.53% 3.28 24.62% 4.06 44.85% 2.23
+0.5 55.15% 1.81 — 44.85% 2.23
+1.0 55.15% 1.81 21.97% 4.55 22.88% 4.37
+1.5 77.12% 1.3 — 22.88% 4.37
+2.0 77.12% 1.3 13.52% 7.4 9.36% 10.69

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.