Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.27%
Fair Odds 2.26
Draw
23.72%
Fair Odds 4.22
Away Win
32.02%
Fair Odds 3.12
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.42% Fair Odds 10.61

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.26 —
Draw 4.22 —
Away Win 3.12 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.42% 10.61
2 2-1 8.76% 11.41
3 1-2 7.44% 13.43
4 2-2 6.92% 14.44
5 1-0 5.96% 16.77
6 2-0 5.55% 18.03
7 3-1 5.43% 18.4
8 0-1 5.07% 19.74
9 3-2 4.29% 23.3
10 0-2 4.0% 24.99
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.21%
31.19
5.07%
19.74
4.0%
24.99
2.11%
47.44
0.83%
120.11
0.26%
380.08
1
5.96%
16.77
9.42%
10.61
7.44%
13.43
3.92%
25.51
1.55%
64.57
0.49%
204.33
2
5.55%
18.03
8.76%
11.41
6.92%
14.44
3.65%
27.43
1.44%
69.43
0.46%
219.73
3
3.44%
29.08
5.43%
18.4
4.29%
23.3
2.26%
44.23
0.89%
111.98
0.28%
354.36
4
1.6%
62.54
2.53%
39.58
2.0%
50.1
1.05%
95.13
0.42%
240.85
0.13%
762.2
5
0.59%
168.1
0.94%
106.39
0.74%
134.68
0.39%
255.69
0.15%
647.25
0.05%
2049.18
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.76% · Fair: 56.67
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 84.43% 15.57%
1.5 55.48% 44.52%
2.5 28.55% 71.45%
3.5 11.85% 88.15%
4.5 4.09% 95.91%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 79.4% 20.6%
1.5 46.86% 53.14%
2.5 21.15% 78.85%
3.5 7.61% 92.39%
4.5 2.26% 97.74%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.21% 31.19
1 11.03% 9.07
2 18.97% 5.27
3 21.75% 4.60
4 18.71% 5.35
5+ 26.33% 3.80
Over 2.5 66.79% Under 2.5 33.21%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.27%
Draw 23.72%
Away Win 32.02%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 66.79%
Under 2.5 33.21%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.04%
No 32.96%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.97% 9.12 13.42% 7.45 75.61% 1.32
-1.5 24.39% 4.1 — 75.61% 1.32
-1.0 24.39% 4.1 20.24% 4.94 55.37% 1.81
-0.5 44.63% 2.24 — 55.37% 1.81
0 (PK) 44.63% 2.24 22.28% 4.49 33.09% 3.02
+0.5 66.91% 1.49 — 33.09% 3.02
+1.0 66.91% 1.49 17.19% 5.82 15.89% 6.29
+1.5 84.11% 1.19 — 15.89% 6.29
+2.0 84.11% 1.19 9.68% 10.33 6.21% 16.11

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.