Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.64%
Fair Odds 2.97
Draw
25.63%
Fair Odds 3.9
Away Win
40.73%
Fair Odds 2.46
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.1% Fair Odds 9.01

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.97 —
Draw 3.9 —
Away Win 2.46 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.1% 9.01
2 1-2 8.77% 11.4
3 2-1 7.99% 12.51
4 0-1 7.71% 12.97
5 1-0 7.03% 14.23
6 2-2 6.32% 15.83
7 0-2 6.09% 16.42
8 2-0 5.06% 19.76
9 0-0 4.88% 20.49
10 1-3 4.62% 21.65
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.88%
20.49
7.71%
12.97
6.09%
16.42
3.21%
31.17
1.27%
78.91
0.4%
249.75
1
7.03%
14.23
11.1%
9.01
8.77%
11.4
4.62%
21.65
1.82%
54.8
0.58%
173.43
2
5.06%
19.76
7.99%
12.51
6.32%
15.83
3.33%
30.06
1.31%
76.12
0.42%
240.85
3
2.43%
41.17
3.84%
26.06
3.03%
32.99
1.6%
62.63
0.63%
158.58
0.2%
501.76
4
0.87%
114.38
1.38%
72.39
1.09%
91.63
0.57%
173.97
0.23%
440.53
0.07%
1394.7
5
0.25%
397.14
0.4%
251.32
0.31%
318.17
0.17%
604.23
0.07%
1529.05
0.02%
4830.92
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.93% · Fair: 107.08
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.31% 23.69%
1.5 42.19% 57.81%
2.5 17.62% 82.38%
3.5 5.83% 94.17%
4.5 1.59% 98.41%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 79.4% 20.6%
1.5 46.86% 53.14%
2.5 21.15% 78.85%
3.5 7.61% 92.39%
4.5 2.26% 97.74%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.88% 20.49
1 14.74% 6.79
2 22.25% 4.49
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.91% 5.91
5+ 18.81% 5.32
Over 2.5 58.13% Under 2.5 41.87%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.64%
Draw 25.63%
Away Win 40.73%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.13%
Under 2.5 41.87%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.59%
No 39.41%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.99% 16.69 10.17% 9.83 83.84% 1.19
-1.5 16.16% 6.19 — 83.84% 1.19
-1.0 16.16% 6.19 18.7% 5.35 65.14% 1.54
-0.5 34.86% 2.87 — 65.14% 1.54
0 (PK) 34.86% 2.87 24.14% 4.14 40.99% 2.44
+0.5 59.0% 1.69 — 40.99% 2.44
+1.0 59.0% 1.69 20.52% 4.87 20.48% 4.88
+1.5 79.52% 1.26 — 20.48% 4.88
+2.0 79.52% 1.26 12.24% 8.17 8.23% 12.14

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.