Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.41%
Fair Odds 2.99
Draw
25.67%
Fair Odds 3.9
Away Win
40.93%
Fair Odds 2.44
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.14% Fair Odds 8.98

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.99 —
Draw 3.9 —
Away Win 2.44 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.14% 8.98
2 1-2 8.8% 11.37
3 2-1 7.96% 12.56
4 0-1 7.79% 12.84
5 1-0 7.05% 14.19
6 2-2 6.29% 15.9
7 0-2 6.15% 16.25
8 2-0 5.04% 19.84
9 0-0 4.93% 20.29
10 1-3 4.63% 21.58
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.93%
20.29
7.79%
12.84
6.15%
16.25
3.24%
30.86
1.28%
78.13
0.4%
247.22
1
7.05%
14.19
11.14%
8.98
8.8%
11.37
4.63%
21.58
1.83%
54.64
0.58%
172.89
2
5.04%
19.84
7.96%
12.56
6.29%
15.9
3.31%
30.18
1.31%
76.41
0.41%
241.84
3
2.4%
41.63
3.8%
26.35
3.0%
33.35
1.58%
63.32
0.62%
160.31
0.2%
507.36
4
0.86%
116.44
1.36%
73.69
1.07%
93.28
0.56%
177.12
0.22%
448.43
0.07%
1418.44
5
0.25%
407.17
0.39%
257.67
0.31%
326.16
0.16%
619.2
0.06%
1567.4
0.02%
4950.5
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.92% · Fair: 108.48
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.07% 23.93%
1.5 41.85% 58.15%
2.5 17.38% 82.62%
3.5 5.72% 94.28%
4.5 1.55% 98.45%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 79.4% 20.6%
1.5 46.86% 53.14%
2.5 21.15% 78.85%
3.5 7.61% 92.39%
4.5 2.26% 97.74%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.93% 20.29
1 14.84% 6.74
2 22.33% 4.48
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.86% 5.93
5+ 18.64% 5.36
Over 2.5 57.9% Under 2.5 42.1%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.41%
Draw 25.67%
Away Win 40.93%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.9%
Under 2.5 42.1%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.4%
No 39.6%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.89% 16.98 10.09% 9.92 84.02% 1.19
-1.5 15.98% 6.26 — 84.02% 1.19
-1.0 15.98% 6.26 18.64% 5.36 65.38% 1.53
-0.5 34.62% 2.89 — 65.38% 1.53
0 (PK) 34.62% 2.89 24.18% 4.14 41.2% 2.43
+0.5 58.8% 1.7 — 41.2% 2.43
+1.0 58.8% 1.7 20.6% 4.85 20.6% 4.85
+1.5 79.4% 1.26 — 20.6% 4.85
+2.0 79.4% 1.26 12.31% 8.12 8.29% 12.06

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.