Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.94%
Fair Odds 3.04
Draw
25.74%
Fair Odds 3.88
Away Win
41.32%
Fair Odds 2.42
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.2% Fair Odds 8.93

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.04 —
Draw 3.88 —
Away Win 2.42 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.2% 8.93
2 1-2 8.85% 11.3
3 0-1 7.95% 12.59
4 2-1 7.9% 12.66
5 1-0 7.09% 14.1
6 0-2 6.28% 15.93
7 2-2 6.24% 16.03
8 0-0 5.03% 19.89
9 2-0 5.0% 20.0
10 1-3 4.66% 21.45
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.03%
19.89
7.95%
12.59
6.28%
15.93
3.31%
30.25
1.31%
76.58
0.41%
242.37
1
7.09%
14.1
11.2%
8.93
8.85%
11.3
4.66%
21.45
1.84%
54.31
0.58%
171.88
2
5.0%
20.0
7.9%
12.66
6.24%
16.03
3.29%
30.43
1.3%
77.04
0.41%
243.78
3
2.35%
42.56
3.71%
26.94
2.93%
34.1
1.54%
64.75
0.61%
163.91
0.19%
518.67
4
0.83%
120.74
1.31%
76.42
1.03%
96.74
0.54%
183.69
0.22%
464.9
0.07%
1470.59
5
0.23%
428.27
0.37%
271.0
0.29%
343.05
0.15%
651.47
0.06%
1650.17
0.02%
5208.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.9% · Fair: 111.21
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 79.4% 20.6%
1.5 46.86% 53.14%
2.5 21.15% 78.85%
3.5 7.61% 92.39%
4.5 2.26% 97.74%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.03% 19.89
1 15.04% 6.65
2 22.48% 4.45
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.75% 5.97
5+ 18.31% 5.46
Over 2.5 57.46% Under 2.5 42.54%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.94%
Draw 25.74%
Away Win 41.32%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.46%
Under 2.5 42.54%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.02%
No 39.98%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.69% 17.57 9.91% 10.09 84.4% 1.18
-1.5 15.6% 6.41 — 84.4% 1.18
-1.0 15.6% 6.41 18.53% 5.4 65.87% 1.52
-0.5 34.13% 2.93 — 65.87% 1.52
0 (PK) 34.13% 2.93 24.25% 4.12 41.61% 2.4
+0.5 58.39% 1.71 — 41.61% 2.4
+1.0 58.39% 1.71 20.77% 4.82 20.85% 4.8
+1.5 79.15% 1.26 — 20.85% 4.8
+2.0 79.15% 1.26 12.45% 8.03 8.4% 11.9

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.