Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.46%
Fair Odds 3.08
Draw
25.81%
Fair Odds 3.87
Away Win
41.73%
Fair Odds 2.4
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.27% Fair Odds 8.88

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.08 —
Draw 3.87 —
Away Win 2.4 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.27% 8.88
2 1-2 8.9% 11.23
3 0-1 8.11% 12.34
4 2-1 7.83% 12.77
5 1-0 7.13% 14.02
6 0-2 6.4% 15.62
7 2-2 6.19% 16.16
8 0-0 5.13% 19.49
9 2-0 4.96% 20.18
10 1-3 4.69% 21.33
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.13%
19.49
8.11%
12.34
6.4%
15.62
3.37%
29.65
1.33%
75.06
0.42%
237.53
1
7.13%
14.02
11.27%
8.88
8.9%
11.23
4.69%
21.33
1.85%
54.0
0.59%
170.91
2
4.96%
20.18
7.83%
12.77
6.19%
16.16
3.26%
30.69
1.29%
77.7
0.41%
245.88
3
2.3%
43.55
3.63%
27.56
2.87%
34.89
1.51%
66.24
0.6%
167.7
0.19%
530.79
4
0.8%
125.31
1.26%
79.31
1.0%
100.4
0.52%
190.62
0.21%
482.63
0.07%
1526.72
5
0.22%
450.86
0.35%
285.31
0.28%
361.14
0.15%
685.87
0.06%
1736.11
0.02%
5494.51
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.88% · Fair: 114.03
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.09% 24.91%
1.5 40.47% 59.53%
2.5 16.41% 83.59%
3.5 5.26% 94.74%
4.5 1.39% 98.61%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 79.4% 20.6%
1.5 46.86% 53.14%
2.5 21.15% 78.85%
3.5 7.61% 92.39%
4.5 2.26% 97.74%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.13% 19.49
1 15.24% 6.56
2 22.63% 4.42
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.63% 6.01
5+ 17.97% 5.56
Over 2.5 57.01% Under 2.5 42.99%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.46%
Draw 25.81%
Away Win 41.73%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.01%
Under 2.5 42.99%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.63%
No 40.37%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.49% 18.2 9.74% 10.27 84.77% 1.18
-1.5 15.23% 6.56 — 84.77% 1.18
-1.0 15.23% 6.56 18.41% 5.43 66.35% 1.51
-0.5 33.65% 2.97 — 66.35% 1.51
0 (PK) 33.65% 2.97 24.32% 4.11 42.03% 2.38
+0.5 57.97% 1.73 — 42.03% 2.38
+1.0 57.97% 1.73 20.93% 4.78 21.1% 4.74
+1.5 78.9% 1.27 — 21.1% 4.74
+2.0 78.9% 1.27 12.59% 7.95 8.51% 11.75

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.