Football Poisson Calculator
xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine
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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
31.75%
Fair Odds
3.15
Draw
25.91%
Fair Odds
3.86
Away Win
42.33%
Fair Odds
2.36
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.36%
Fair Odds 8.8
Match odds & output
FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
| Market | Market Odds | Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. | Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 3.15 | — | |
| Draw | 3.86 | — | |
| Away Win | 2.36 | — |
Find Value Opportunities
Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.
See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
| # | Correct Score | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 11.36% | 8.8 |
| 2 | 1-2 | 8.97% | 11.14 |
| 3 | 0-1 | 8.35% | 11.97 |
| 4 | 2-1 | 7.72% | 12.95 |
| 5 | 1-0 | 7.19% | 13.91 |
| 6 | 0-2 | 6.6% | 15.15 |
| 7 | 2-2 | 6.1% | 16.39 |
| 8 | 0-0 | 5.29% | 18.92 |
| 9 | 2-0 | 4.89% | 20.45 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 4.73% | 21.16 |
SCORE MATRIX
Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.29%
18.92
|
8.35%
11.97
|
6.6%
15.15
|
3.48%
28.77
|
1.37%
72.84
|
0.43%
230.52
|
| 1 |
7.19%
13.91
|
11.36%
8.8
|
8.97%
11.14
|
4.73%
21.16
|
1.87%
53.56
|
0.59%
169.49
|
| 2 |
4.89%
20.45
|
7.72%
12.95
|
6.1%
16.39
|
3.21%
31.11
|
1.27%
78.77
|
0.4%
249.25
|
| 3 |
2.22%
45.12
|
3.5%
28.56
|
2.77%
36.15
|
1.46%
68.63
|
0.58%
173.76
|
0.18%
549.75
|
| 4 |
0.75%
132.7
|
1.19%
83.99
|
0.94%
106.32
|
0.5%
201.86
|
0.2%
510.99
|
0.06%
1618.12
|
| 5 |
0.21%
487.8
|
0.32%
308.74
|
0.26%
390.93
|
0.13%
742.39
|
0.05%
1879.7
|
0.02%
5952.38
|
Any other score (6+ goals either side)
0.85%
·
Fair:
118.22
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 74.33% | 25.67% |
| 1.5 | 39.43% | 60.57% |
| 2.5 | 15.69% | 84.31% |
| 3.5 | 4.93% | 95.07% |
| 4.5 | 1.27% | 98.73% |
Away Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 79.4% | 20.6% |
| 1.5 | 46.86% | 53.14% |
| 2.5 | 21.15% | 78.85% |
| 3.5 | 7.61% | 92.39% |
| 4.5 | 2.26% | 97.74% |
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
| Goals | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.29% | 18.92 |
| 1 | 15.54% | 6.43 |
| 2 | 22.85% | 4.38 |
| 3 | 22.39% | 4.47 |
| 4 | 16.46% | 6.08 |
| 5+ | 17.48% | 5.72 |
|
Over 2.5 56.32%
Under 2.5 43.68%
|
||
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win
31.75%
Draw
25.91%
Away Win
42.33%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.32%
Under 2.5
43.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes
59.02%
No
40.98%
Asian Handicap Probability
?
Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model.
Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines.
Home Handicap
| Line | Home Side | Push | Away Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 5.21% 19.21 | 9.48% 10.55 | 85.32% 1.17 |
| -1.5 | 14.68% 6.81 | — | 85.32% 1.17 |
| -1.0 | 14.68% 6.81 | 18.23% 5.48 | 67.08% 1.49 |
| -0.5 | 32.92% 3.04 | — | 67.08% 1.49 |
| 0 (PK) | 32.92% 3.04 | 24.42% 4.1 | 42.66% 2.34 |
| +0.5 | 57.34% 1.74 | — | 42.66% 2.34 |
| +1.0 | 57.34% 1.74 | 21.18% 4.72 | 21.48% 4.66 |
| +1.5 | 78.52% 1.27 | — | 21.48% 4.66 |
| +2.0 | 78.52% 1.27 | 12.79% 7.82 | 8.69% 11.51 |
HOW THE MODEL WORKS
Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output
All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).
Limits of the Poisson model
Strong model, with caveats:
- Independent goals = simplifying assumption
- Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
- Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
SHARE THIS TOOL
How to use the Poisson calculator
- Enter the home xG
- Enter the away xG
- Click Calculate (or use live update)
- Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions
For anyone doing data-led football work.
Why Poisson helps xG models
xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.
Benefits such as
- Less noise from finishing luck
- Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
- Fair-odds from clean probabilities
- Spot model vs book value
Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.
Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.
Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).
Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source
Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.
Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.
