Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
23.33%
Fair Odds 4.29
Draw
26.7%
Fair Odds 3.75
Away Win
49.97%
Fair Odds 2.0
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.97% Fair Odds 8.35

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.29 —
Draw 3.75 —
Away Win 2.0 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.97% 8.35
2 0-1 11.85% 8.44
3 1-2 9.46% 10.57
4 0-2 9.36% 10.68
5 1-0 7.58% 13.2
6 0-0 7.5% 13.33
7 2-1 6.05% 16.54
8 1-3 4.98% 20.08
9 0-3 4.93% 20.28
10 2-2 4.78% 20.94
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.5%
13.33
11.85%
8.44
9.36%
10.68
4.93%
20.28
1.95%
51.33
0.62%
162.44
1
7.58%
13.2
11.97%
8.35
9.46%
10.57
4.98%
20.08
1.97%
50.83
0.62%
160.85
2
3.83%
26.13
6.05%
16.54
4.78%
20.94
2.52%
39.76
0.99%
100.64
0.31%
318.47
3
1.29%
77.63
2.04%
49.13
1.61%
62.19
0.85%
118.08
0.33%
298.95
0.11%
946.07
4
0.33%
307.41
0.51%
194.59
0.41%
246.31
0.21%
467.73
0.08%
1183.43
0.03%
3745.32
5
0.07%
1522.07
0.1%
963.39
0.08%
1219.51
0.04%
2314.81
0.02%
5847.95
0.01%
18518.52
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.63% · Fair: 158.33
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 63.58% 36.42%
1.5 26.79% 73.21%
2.5 8.21% 91.79%
3.5 1.96% 98.04%
4.5 0.38% 99.62%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 79.4% 20.6%
1.5 46.86% 53.14%
2.5 21.15% 78.85%
3.5 7.61% 92.39%
4.5 2.26% 97.74%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.50% 13.33
1 19.43% 5.15
2 25.16% 3.97
3 21.72% 4.60
4 14.07% 7.11
5+ 12.12% 8.25
Over 2.5 47.91% Under 2.5 52.09%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 23.33%
Draw 26.70%
Away Win 49.97%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 47.91%
Under 2.5 52.09%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.48%
No 49.52%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.44% 41.03 6.31% 15.84 91.25% 1.1
-1.5 8.75% 11.43 — 91.25% 1.1
-1.0 8.75% 11.43 15.46% 6.47 75.79% 1.32
-0.5 24.21% 4.13 — 75.79% 1.32
0 (PK) 24.21% 4.13 25.19% 3.97 50.6% 1.98
+0.5 49.4% 2.02 — 50.6% 1.98
+1.0 49.4% 2.02 24.19% 4.13 26.41% 3.79
+1.5 73.59% 1.36 — 26.41% 3.79
+2.0 73.59% 1.36 15.45% 6.47 10.96% 9.13

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.