Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
21.14%
Fair Odds 4.73
Draw
26.76%
Fair Odds 3.74
Away Win
52.1%
Fair Odds 1.92
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 12.97% Fair Odds 7.71

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.73 —
Draw 3.74 —
Away Win 1.92 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 12.97% 7.71
2 1-1 11.93% 8.38
3 0-2 10.25% 9.76
4 1-2 9.43% 10.61
5 0-0 8.21% 12.18
6 1-0 7.55% 13.24
7 2-1 5.49% 18.22
8 0-3 5.4% 18.53
9 1-3 4.96% 20.14
10 2-2 4.34% 23.06
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.21%
12.18
12.97%
7.71
10.25%
9.76
5.4%
18.53
2.13%
46.92
0.67%
148.48
1
7.55%
13.24
11.93%
8.38
9.43%
10.61
4.96%
20.14
1.96%
50.99
0.62%
161.37
2
3.47%
28.79
5.49%
18.22
4.34%
23.06
2.28%
43.79
0.9%
110.86
0.29%
350.88
3
1.07%
93.87
1.68%
59.41
1.33%
75.2
0.7%
142.8
0.28%
361.53
0.09%
1144.16
4
0.24%
408.16
0.39%
258.33
0.31%
327.01
0.16%
620.73
0.06%
1572.33
0.02%
4975.12
5
0.05%
2217.29
0.07%
1404.49
0.06%
1776.2
0.03%
3378.38
0.01%
8547.01
0.0%
27027.03
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.61% · Fair: 164.5
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 60.15% 39.85%
1.5 23.48% 76.52%
2.5 6.62% 93.38%
3.5 1.45% 98.55%
4.5 0.26% 99.74%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 79.4% 20.6%
1.5 46.86% 53.14%
2.5 21.15% 78.85%
3.5 7.61% 92.39%
4.5 2.26% 97.74%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.21% 12.18
1 20.52% 4.87
2 25.65% 3.90
3 21.38% 4.68
4 13.36% 7.48
5+ 10.88% 9.19
Over 2.5 45.62% Under 2.5 54.38%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 21.14%
Draw 26.76%
Away Win 52.10%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.62%
Under 2.5 54.38%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 47.76%
No 52.24%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.91% 52.47 5.49% 18.2 92.6% 1.08
-1.5 7.4% 13.51 — 92.6% 1.08
-1.0 7.4% 13.51 14.54% 6.88 78.06% 1.28
-0.5 21.94% 4.56 — 78.06% 1.28
0 (PK) 21.94% 4.56 25.24% 3.96 52.81% 1.89
+0.5 47.19% 2.12 — 52.81% 1.89
+1.0 47.19% 2.12 24.98% 4.0 27.83% 3.59
+1.5 72.17% 1.39 — 27.83% 3.59
+2.0 72.17% 1.39 16.21% 6.17 11.63% 8.6

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.