Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
46.39%
Fair Odds 2.16
Draw
23.25%
Fair Odds 4.3
Away Win
30.36%
Fair Odds 3.29
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.06% Fair Odds 11.04

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.16 —
Draw 4.3 —
Away Win 3.29 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.06% 11.04
2 2-1 8.84% 11.32
3 1-2 7.11% 14.06
4 2-2 6.94% 14.42
5 1-0 5.77% 17.33
6 3-1 5.74% 17.41
7 2-0 5.63% 17.77
8 0-1 4.65% 21.52
9 3-2 4.51% 22.18
10 1-3 3.72% 26.86
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.96%
33.78
4.65%
21.52
3.65%
27.41
1.91%
52.38
0.75%
133.46
0.24%
424.99
1
5.77%
17.33
9.06%
11.04
7.11%
14.06
3.72%
26.86
1.46%
68.44
0.46%
217.96
2
5.63%
17.77
8.84%
11.32
6.94%
14.42
3.63%
27.55
1.42%
70.19
0.45%
223.56
3
3.66%
27.34
5.74%
17.41
4.51%
22.18
2.36%
42.39
0.93%
107.99
0.29%
343.88
4
1.78%
56.08
2.8%
35.72
2.2%
45.5
1.15%
86.94
0.45%
221.53
0.14%
705.22
5
0.7%
143.78
1.09%
91.58
0.86%
116.67
0.45%
222.92
0.18%
567.86
0.06%
1808.32
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.03% · Fair: 49.35
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 85.77% 14.23%
1.5 58.03% 41.97%
2.5 30.98% 69.02%
3.5 13.4% 86.6%
4.5 4.82% 95.17%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 79.2% 20.8%
1.5 46.53% 53.47%
2.5 20.89% 79.11%
3.5 7.47% 92.53%
4.5 2.21% 97.79%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.96% 33.78
1 10.42% 9.60
2 18.34% 5.45
3 21.52% 4.65
4 18.93% 5.28
5+ 27.83% 3.59
Over 2.5 68.28% Under 2.5 31.72%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 46.39%
Draw 23.25%
Away Win 30.36%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 68.28%
Under 2.5 31.72%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.93%
No 32.07%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 12.28% 8.14 14.08% 7.1 73.64% 1.36
-1.5 26.36% 3.79 — 73.64% 1.36
-1.0 26.36% 3.79 20.46% 4.89 53.18% 1.88
-0.5 46.82% 2.14 — 53.18% 1.88
0 (PK) 46.82% 2.14 21.83% 4.58 31.35% 3.19
+0.5 68.65% 1.46 — 31.35% 3.19
+1.0 68.65% 1.46 16.47% 6.07 14.88% 6.72
+1.5 85.12% 1.17 — 14.88% 6.72
+2.0 85.12% 1.17 9.13% 10.96 5.75% 17.39

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.