Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
16.65%
Fair Odds 6.01
Draw
26.77%
Fair Odds 3.74
Away Win
56.58%
Fair Odds 1.77
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 15.74% Fair Odds 6.35

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 6.01 —
Draw 3.74 —
Away Win 1.77 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 15.74% 6.35
2 0-2 12.36% 8.09
3 1-1 11.49% 8.7
4 0-0 10.03% 9.97
5 1-2 9.02% 11.09
6 1-0 7.32% 13.66
7 0-3 6.47% 15.46
8 1-3 4.72% 21.18
9 2-1 4.19% 23.84
10 2-2 3.29% 30.37
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.03%
9.97
15.74%
6.35
12.36%
8.09
6.47%
15.46
2.54%
39.4
0.8%
125.47
1
7.32%
13.66
11.49%
8.7
9.02%
11.09
4.72%
21.18
1.85%
53.97
0.58%
171.88
2
2.67%
37.43
4.19%
23.84
3.29%
30.37
1.72%
58.04
0.68%
147.86
0.21%
470.81
3
0.65%
153.85
1.02%
97.98
0.8%
124.83
0.42%
238.49
0.16%
607.53
0.05%
1934.24
4
0.12%
843.17
0.19%
536.77
0.15%
683.99
0.08%
1307.19
0.03%
3333.33
0.01%
10638.3
5
0.02%
5780.35
0.03%
3676.47
0.02%
4694.84
0.01%
8928.57
0.0%
22727.27
0.0%
71428.57
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.56% · Fair: 177.4
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 51.81% 48.19%
1.5 16.63% 83.37%
2.5 3.79% 96.21%
3.5 0.66% 99.34%
4.5 0.09% 99.91%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 79.2% 20.8%
1.5 46.53% 53.47%
2.5 20.89% 79.11%
3.5 7.47% 92.53%
4.5 2.21% 97.79%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.03% 9.97
1 23.06% 4.34
2 26.52% 3.77
3 20.33% 4.92
4 11.69% 8.55
5+ 8.38% 11.94
Over 2.5 40.4% Under 2.5 59.6%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 16.65%
Draw 26.77%
Away Win 56.58%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 40.4%
Under 2.5 59.6%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 41.03%
No 58.97%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.03% 96.97 3.85% 25.97 95.12% 1.05
-1.5 4.88% 20.49 — 95.12% 1.05
-1.0 4.88% 20.49 12.4% 8.07 82.72% 1.21
-0.5 17.28% 5.79 — 82.72% 1.21
0 (PK) 17.28% 5.79 25.26% 3.96 57.46% 1.74
+0.5 42.54% 2.35 — 57.46% 1.74
+1.0 42.54% 2.35 26.66% 3.75 30.81% 3.25
+1.5 69.19% 1.45 — 30.81% 3.25
+2.0 69.19% 1.45 17.81% 5.62 13.0% 7.69

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.