Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
43.13%
Fair Odds 2.32
Draw
24.13%
Fair Odds 4.14
Away Win
32.74%
Fair Odds 3.05
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.8% Fair Odds 10.21

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.32 —
Draw 4.14 —
Away Win 3.05 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.8% 10.21
2 2-1 8.77% 11.4
3 1-2 7.64% 13.09
4 2-2 6.84% 14.62
5 1-0 6.28% 15.92
6 2-0 5.62% 17.79
7 0-1 5.47% 18.27
8 3-1 5.23% 19.11
9 0-2 4.27% 23.42
10 3-2 4.08% 24.5
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.51%
28.5
5.47%
18.27
4.27%
23.42
2.22%
45.05
0.87%
115.5
0.27%
370.23
1
6.28%
15.92
9.8%
10.21
7.64%
13.09
3.97%
25.17
1.55%
64.53
0.48%
206.83
2
5.62%
17.79
8.77%
11.4
6.84%
14.62
3.56%
28.12
1.39%
72.1
0.43%
231.11
3
3.35%
29.82
5.23%
19.11
4.08%
24.5
2.12%
47.13
0.83%
120.83
0.26%
387.3
4
1.5%
66.63
2.34%
42.71
1.83%
54.76
0.95%
105.31
0.37%
270.05
0.12%
865.8
5
0.54%
186.12
0.84%
119.3
0.65%
152.95
0.34%
294.12
0.13%
754.15
0.04%
2415.46
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.54% · Fair: 64.83
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 83.3% 16.7%
1.5 53.42% 46.58%
2.5 26.67% 73.33%
3.5 10.71% 89.29%
4.5 3.57% 96.43%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.99% 21.01%
1.5 46.21% 53.79%
2.5 20.64% 79.36%
3.5 7.34% 92.66%
4.5 2.15% 97.85%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.51% 28.50
1 11.75% 8.51
2 19.69% 5.08
3 21.98% 4.55
4 18.41% 5.43
5+ 24.66% 4.06
Over 2.5 65.05% Under 2.5 34.95%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 43.13%
Draw 24.13%
Away Win 32.74%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 65.05%
Under 2.5 34.95%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 65.8%
No 34.2%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.18% 9.83 13.06% 7.66 76.76% 1.3
-1.5 23.24% 4.3 — 76.76% 1.3
-1.0 23.24% 4.3 20.22% 4.94 56.54% 1.77
-0.5 43.46% 2.3 — 56.54% 1.77
0 (PK) 43.46% 2.3 22.68% 4.41 33.86% 2.95
+0.5 66.14% 1.51 — 33.86% 2.95
+1.0 66.14% 1.51 17.63% 5.67 16.23% 6.16
+1.5 83.77% 1.19 — 16.23% 6.16
+2.0 83.77% 1.19 9.92% 10.08 6.31% 15.85

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.