Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.91%
Fair Odds 2.44
Draw
24.63%
Fair Odds 4.06
Away Win
34.46%
Fair Odds 2.9
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.22% Fair Odds 9.78

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.44 —
Draw 4.06 —
Away Win 2.9 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.22% 9.78
2 2-1 8.64% 11.58
3 1-2 7.97% 12.54
4 2-2 6.74% 14.84
5 1-0 6.55% 15.26
6 0-1 6.05% 16.53
7 2-0 5.54% 18.06
8 3-1 4.87% 20.55
9 0-2 4.72% 21.19
10 1-3 4.15% 24.12
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.88%
25.79
6.05%
16.53
4.72%
21.19
2.45%
40.76
0.96%
104.52
0.3%
335.01
1
6.55%
15.26
10.22%
9.78
7.97%
12.54
4.15%
24.12
1.62%
61.84
0.5%
198.22
2
5.54%
18.06
8.64%
11.58
6.74%
14.84
3.5%
28.54
1.37%
73.19
0.43%
234.58
3
3.12%
32.06
4.87%
20.55
3.8%
26.35
1.97%
50.67
0.77%
129.92
0.24%
416.32
4
1.32%
75.88
2.06%
48.64
1.6%
62.36
0.83%
119.92
0.33%
307.5
0.1%
985.22
5
0.45%
224.52
0.69%
143.91
0.54%
184.5
0.28%
354.74
0.11%
909.92
0.03%
2915.45
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.31% · Fair: 76.31
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.55% 18.45%
1.5 50.36% 49.64%
2.5 24.01% 75.99%
3.5 9.17% 90.83%
4.5 2.9% 97.1%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.99% 21.01%
1.5 46.21% 53.79%
2.5 20.64% 79.36%
3.5 7.34% 92.66%
4.5 2.15% 97.85%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.88% 25.79
1 12.60% 7.94
2 20.48% 4.88
3 22.18% 4.51
4 18.02% 5.55
5+ 22.83% 4.38
Over 2.5 63.04% Under 2.5 36.96%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.91%
Draw 24.63%
Away Win 34.46%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 63.04%
Under 2.5 36.96%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 64.41%
No 35.59%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.91% 11.23 12.32% 8.12 78.77% 1.27
-1.5 21.23% 4.71 — 78.77% 1.27
-1.0 21.23% 4.71 19.94% 5.01 58.83% 1.7
-0.5 41.17% 2.43 — 58.83% 1.7
0 (PK) 41.17% 2.43 23.17% 4.32 35.66% 2.8
+0.5 64.34% 1.55 — 35.66% 2.8
+1.0 64.34% 1.55 18.41% 5.43 17.25% 5.8
+1.5 82.75% 1.21 — 17.25% 5.8
+2.0 82.75% 1.21 10.5% 9.52 6.75% 14.81

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.