Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.78%
Fair Odds 2.51
Draw
24.88%
Fair Odds 4.02
Away Win
35.35%
Fair Odds 2.83
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.43% Fair Odds 9.59

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.51 —
Draw 4.02 —
Away Win 2.83 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.43% 9.59
2 2-1 8.55% 11.69
3 1-2 8.13% 12.29
4 1-0 6.69% 14.96
5 2-2 6.67% 14.99
6 0-1 6.36% 15.73
7 2-0 5.48% 18.24
8 0-2 4.96% 20.16
9 3-1 4.67% 21.39
10 1-3 4.23% 23.64
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.08%
24.53
6.36%
15.73
4.96%
20.16
2.58%
38.77
1.01%
99.41
0.31%
318.67
1
6.69%
14.96
10.43%
9.59
8.13%
12.29
4.23%
23.64
1.65%
60.62
0.51%
194.29
2
5.48%
18.24
8.55%
11.69
6.67%
14.99
3.47%
28.83
1.35%
73.93
0.42%
236.97
3
3.0%
33.37
4.67%
21.39
3.65%
27.43
1.9%
52.74
0.74%
135.23
0.23%
433.46
4
1.23%
81.39
1.92%
52.17
1.49%
66.89
0.78%
128.63
0.3%
329.82
0.09%
1057.08
5
0.4%
248.14
0.63%
159.06
0.49%
203.92
0.26%
392.16
0.1%
1006.04
0.03%
3225.81
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.21% · Fair: 82.62
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.6% 19.4%
1.5 48.79% 51.21%
2.5 22.7% 77.3%
3.5 8.44% 91.56%
4.5 2.6% 97.4%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.99% 21.01%
1.5 46.21% 53.79%
2.5 20.64% 79.36%
3.5 7.34% 92.66%
4.5 2.15% 97.85%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.08% 24.53
1 13.04% 7.67
2 20.87% 4.79
3 22.26% 4.49
4 17.81% 5.62
5+ 21.94% 4.56
Over 2.5 62.01% Under 2.5 37.99%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.78%
Draw 24.88%
Away Win 35.35%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 62.01%
Under 2.5 37.99%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 63.66%
No 36.34%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.3% 12.05 11.94% 8.38 79.76% 1.25
-1.5 20.24% 4.94 — 79.76% 1.25
-1.0 20.24% 4.94 19.77% 5.06 60.0% 1.67
-0.5 40.0% 2.5 — 60.0% 1.67
0 (PK) 40.0% 2.5 23.41% 4.27 36.59% 2.73
+0.5 63.41% 1.58 — 36.59% 2.73
+1.0 63.41% 1.58 18.8% 5.32 17.78% 5.62
+1.5 82.22% 1.22 — 17.78% 5.62
+2.0 82.22% 1.22 10.8% 9.26 6.98% 14.32

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.