Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.58%
Fair Odds 3.07
Draw
25.97%
Fair Odds 3.85
Away Win
41.45%
Fair Odds 2.41
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.38% Fair Odds 8.79

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.07 —
Draw 3.85 —
Away Win 2.41 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.38% 8.79
2 1-2 8.88% 11.26
3 0-1 8.25% 12.13
4 2-1 7.85% 12.73
5 1-0 7.3% 13.71
6 0-2 6.43% 15.55
7 2-2 6.13% 16.33
8 0-0 5.29% 18.92
9 2-0 5.03% 19.87
10 1-3 4.62% 21.66
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.29%
18.92
8.25%
12.13
6.43%
15.55
3.35%
29.9
1.3%
76.65
0.41%
245.7
1
7.3%
13.71
11.38%
8.79
8.88%
11.26
4.62%
21.66
1.8%
55.55
0.56%
178.03
2
5.03%
19.87
7.85%
12.73
6.13%
16.33
3.19%
31.4
1.24%
80.5
0.39%
258.0
3
2.32%
43.19
3.61%
27.68
2.82%
35.49
1.47%
68.25
0.57%
175.01
0.18%
560.85
4
0.8%
125.17
1.25%
80.24
0.97%
102.87
0.51%
197.82
0.2%
507.36
0.06%
1626.02
5
0.22%
453.51
0.34%
290.7
0.27%
372.72
0.14%
716.85
0.05%
1838.24
0.02%
5882.35
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.83% · Fair: 120.03
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.84% 25.16%
1.5 40.12% 59.88%
2.5 16.17% 83.83%
3.5 5.15% 94.85%
4.5 1.35% 98.65%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.99% 21.01%
1.5 46.21% 53.79%
2.5 20.64% 79.36%
3.5 7.34% 92.66%
4.5 2.15% 97.85%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.29% 18.92
1 15.54% 6.43
2 22.85% 4.38
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.46% 6.08
5+ 17.48% 5.72
Over 2.5 56.32% Under 2.5 43.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.58%
Draw 25.97%
Away Win 41.45%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.32%
Under 2.5 43.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.12%
No 40.88%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.47% 18.27 9.77% 10.23 84.76% 1.18
-1.5 15.24% 6.56 — 84.76% 1.18
-1.0 15.24% 6.56 18.53% 5.4 66.23% 1.51
-0.5 33.77% 2.96 — 66.23% 1.51
0 (PK) 33.77% 2.96 24.47% 4.09 41.75% 2.4
+0.5 58.25% 1.72 — 41.75% 2.4
+1.0 58.25% 1.72 20.95% 4.77 20.81% 4.81
+1.5 79.19% 1.26 — 20.81% 4.81
+2.0 79.19% 1.26 12.49% 8.01 8.32% 12.02

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.