Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
24.36%
Fair Odds 4.11
Draw
26.85%
Fair Odds 3.72
Away Win
48.79%
Fair Odds 2.05
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.05% Fair Odds 8.3

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.11 —
Draw 3.72 —
Away Win 2.05 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.05% 8.3
2 0-1 11.59% 8.63
3 1-2 9.4% 10.64
4 0-2 9.04% 11.06
5 1-0 7.72% 12.95
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 2-1 6.27% 15.96
8 1-3 4.89% 20.46
9 2-2 4.89% 20.46
10 0-3 4.7% 21.28
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
11.59%
8.63
9.04%
11.06
4.7%
21.28
1.83%
54.56
0.57%
174.89
1
7.72%
12.95
12.05%
8.3
9.4%
10.64
4.89%
20.46
1.91%
52.46
0.59%
168.15
2
4.02%
24.9
6.27%
15.96
4.89%
20.46
2.54%
39.35
0.99%
100.89
0.31%
323.31
3
1.39%
71.81
2.17%
46.04
1.69%
59.02
0.88%
113.49
0.34%
291.04
0.11%
932.84
4
0.36%
276.24
0.56%
177.05
0.44%
227.01
0.23%
436.49
0.09%
1119.82
0.03%
3584.23
5
0.08%
1328.02
0.12%
851.06
0.09%
1091.7
0.05%
2100.84
0.02%
5376.34
0.01%
17241.38
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.61% · Fair: 164.26
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 64.65% 35.35%
1.5 27.9% 72.1%
2.5 8.78% 91.22%
3.5 2.15% 97.85%
4.5 0.43% 99.57%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.99% 21.01%
1.5 46.21% 53.79%
2.5 20.64% 79.36%
3.5 7.34% 92.66%
4.5 2.15% 97.85%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 24.36%
Draw 26.85%
Away Win 48.79%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 51.07%
No 48.93%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.67% 37.43 6.68% 14.97 90.65% 1.1
-1.5 9.35% 10.69 — 90.65% 1.1
-1.0 9.35% 10.69 15.93% 6.28 74.71% 1.34
-0.5 25.29% 3.95 — 74.71% 1.34
0 (PK) 25.29% 3.95 25.34% 3.95 49.37% 2.03
+0.5 50.63% 1.98 — 49.37% 2.03
+1.0 50.63% 1.98 23.9% 4.18 25.47% 3.93
+1.5 74.53% 1.34 — 25.47% 3.93
+2.0 74.53% 1.34 15.03% 6.65 10.44% 9.58

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.