Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
17.5%
Fair Odds 5.72
Draw
26.94%
Fair Odds 3.71
Away Win
55.57%
Fair Odds 1.8
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 15.33% Fair Odds 6.52

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 5.72 —
Draw 3.71 —
Away Win 1.8 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 15.33% 6.52
2 0-2 11.96% 8.36
3 1-1 11.65% 8.58
4 0-0 9.83% 10.18
5 1-2 9.09% 11.0
6 1-0 7.47% 13.39
7 0-3 6.22% 16.08
8 1-3 4.73% 21.16
9 2-1 4.43% 22.59
10 2-2 3.45% 28.96
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.83%
10.18
15.33%
6.52
11.96%
8.36
6.22%
16.08
2.43%
41.24
0.76%
132.17
1
7.47%
13.39
11.65%
8.58
9.09%
11.0
4.73%
21.16
1.84%
54.26
0.57%
173.91
2
2.84%
35.23
4.43%
22.59
3.45%
28.96
1.8%
55.69
0.7%
142.78
0.22%
457.67
3
0.72%
139.08
1.12%
89.16
0.87%
114.3
0.45%
219.83
0.18%
563.7
0.06%
1805.05
4
0.14%
732.06
0.21%
469.26
0.17%
601.68
0.09%
1157.41
0.03%
2967.36
0.01%
9523.81
5
0.02%
4807.69
0.03%
3086.42
0.03%
3952.57
0.01%
7633.59
0.01%
19607.84
0.0%
62500.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.55% · Fair: 181.69
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 53.23% 46.77%
1.5 17.69% 82.31%
2.5 4.18% 95.82%
3.5 0.76% 99.24%
4.5 0.11% 99.89%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.99% 21.01%
1.5 46.21% 53.79%
2.5 20.64% 79.36%
3.5 7.34% 92.66%
4.5 2.15% 97.85%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.83% 10.18
1 22.80% 4.39
2 26.45% 3.78
3 20.45% 4.89
4 11.86% 8.43
5+ 8.61% 11.61
Over 2.5 40.93% Under 2.5 59.07%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 17.50%
Draw 26.94%
Away Win 55.57%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 40.93%
Under 2.5 59.07%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 42.05%
No 57.95%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.16% 86.19 4.14% 24.16 94.7% 1.06
-1.5 5.3% 18.87 — 94.7% 1.06
-1.0 5.3% 18.87 12.86% 7.77 81.84% 1.22
-0.5 18.16% 5.51 — 81.84% 1.22
0 (PK) 18.16% 5.51 25.42% 3.93 56.41% 1.77
+0.5 43.59% 2.29 — 56.41% 1.77
+1.0 43.59% 2.29 26.4% 3.79 30.01% 3.33
+1.5 69.99% 1.43 — 30.01% 3.33
+2.0 69.99% 1.43 17.44% 5.73 12.57% 7.96

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.