Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.55%
Fair Odds 2.41
Draw
24.57%
Fair Odds 4.07
Away Win
33.89%
Fair Odds 2.95
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.17% Fair Odds 9.83

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.41 —
Draw 4.07 —
Away Win 2.95 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.17% 9.83
2 2-1 8.7% 11.49
3 1-2 7.89% 12.68
4 2-2 6.74% 14.83
5 1-0 6.56% 15.23
6 0-1 5.95% 16.81
7 2-0 5.61% 17.82
8 3-1 4.96% 20.17
9 0-2 4.61% 21.69
10 1-3 4.07% 24.54
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.84%
26.05
5.95%
16.81
4.61%
21.69
2.38%
41.97
0.92%
108.32
0.29%
349.41
1
6.56%
15.23
10.17%
9.83
7.89%
12.68
4.07%
24.54
1.58%
63.34
0.49%
204.33
2
5.61%
17.82
8.7%
11.49
6.74%
14.83
3.48%
28.71
1.35%
74.09
0.42%
239.01
3
3.2%
31.26
4.96%
20.17
3.84%
26.02
1.99%
50.36
0.77%
129.97
0.24%
419.29
4
1.37%
73.12
2.12%
47.17
1.64%
60.87
0.85%
117.81
0.33%
304.04
0.1%
980.39
5
0.47%
213.81
0.73%
137.93
0.56%
177.97
0.29%
344.47
0.11%
888.89
0.03%
2865.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.34% · Fair: 74.75
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.91% 18.09%
1.5 50.99% 49.01%
2.5 24.54% 75.46%
3.5 9.47% 90.53%
4.5 3.03% 96.97%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.78% 21.22%
1.5 45.88% 54.12%
2.5 20.38% 79.62%
3.5 7.21% 92.79%
4.5 2.1% 97.9%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.84% 26.05
1 12.51% 7.99
2 20.40% 4.90
3 22.17% 4.51
4 18.07% 5.54
5+ 23.01% 4.35
Over 2.5 63.25% Under 2.5 36.75%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.55%
Draw 24.57%
Away Win 33.89%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 63.25%
Under 2.5 36.75%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 64.53%
No 35.47%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.21% 10.85 12.54% 7.98 78.25% 1.28
-1.5 21.75% 4.6 — 78.25% 1.28
-1.0 21.75% 4.6 20.08% 4.98 58.17% 1.72
-0.5 41.83% 2.39 — 58.17% 1.72
0 (PK) 41.83% 2.39 23.11% 4.33 35.06% 2.85
+0.5 64.94% 1.54 — 35.06% 2.85
+1.0 64.94% 1.54 18.2% 5.49 16.86% 5.93
+1.5 83.14% 1.2 — 16.86% 5.93
+2.0 83.14% 1.2 10.3% 9.71 6.56% 15.25

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.