Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.97%
Fair Odds 2.5
Draw
24.91%
Fair Odds 4.01
Away Win
35.12%
Fair Odds 2.85
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.47% Fair Odds 9.55

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.5 —
Draw 4.01 —
Away Win 2.85 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.47% 9.55
2 2-1 8.58% 11.65
3 1-2 8.11% 12.33
4 1-0 6.75% 14.81
5 2-2 6.65% 15.04
6 0-1 6.38% 15.67
7 2-0 5.54% 18.06
8 0-2 4.95% 20.22
9 3-1 4.69% 21.32
10 1-3 4.19% 23.86
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.12%
24.29
6.38%
15.67
4.95%
20.22
2.56%
39.13
0.99%
100.99
0.31%
325.73
1
6.75%
14.81
10.47%
9.55
8.11%
12.33
4.19%
23.86
1.62%
61.58
0.5%
198.65
2
5.54%
18.06
8.58%
11.65
6.65%
15.04
3.44%
29.1
1.33%
75.1
0.41%
242.25
3
3.03%
33.04
4.69%
21.32
3.64%
27.5
1.88%
53.23
0.73%
137.38
0.23%
443.07
4
1.24%
80.58
1.92%
51.99
1.49%
67.08
0.77%
129.84
0.3%
335.01
0.09%
1081.08
5
0.41%
245.7
0.63%
158.5
0.49%
204.5
0.25%
395.88
0.1%
1021.45
0.03%
3300.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.19% · Fair: 83.72
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.6% 19.4%
1.5 48.79% 51.21%
2.5 22.7% 77.3%
3.5 8.44% 91.56%
4.5 2.6% 97.4%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.78% 21.22%
1.5 45.88% 54.12%
2.5 20.38% 79.62%
3.5 7.21% 92.79%
4.5 2.1% 97.9%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.12% 24.29
1 13.13% 7.61
2 20.95% 4.77
3 22.28% 4.49
4 17.76% 5.63
5+ 21.76% 4.60
Over 2.5 61.8% Under 2.5 38.2%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.97%
Draw 24.91%
Away Win 35.12%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 61.8%
Under 2.5 38.2%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 63.49%
No 36.51%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.36% 11.97 12.0% 8.33 79.64% 1.26
-1.5 20.36% 4.91 — 79.64% 1.26
-1.0 20.36% 4.91 19.85% 5.04 59.8% 1.67
-0.5 40.2% 2.49 — 59.8% 1.67
0 (PK) 40.2% 2.49 23.44% 4.27 36.35% 2.75
+0.5 63.65% 1.57 — 36.35% 2.75
+1.0 63.65% 1.57 18.76% 5.33 17.6% 5.68
+1.5 82.4% 1.21 — 17.6% 5.68
+2.0 82.4% 1.21 10.72% 9.33 6.88% 14.54

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.