Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.12%
Fair Odds 2.85
Draw
25.63%
Fair Odds 3.9
Away Win
39.24%
Fair Odds 2.55
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.08% Fair Odds 9.02

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.85 —
Draw 3.9 —
Away Win 2.55 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.08% 9.02
2 1-2 8.59% 11.64
3 2-1 8.2% 12.19
4 0-1 7.49% 13.35
5 1-0 7.15% 13.98
6 2-2 6.36% 15.73
7 0-2 5.8% 17.23
8 2-0 5.29% 18.9
9 0-0 4.83% 20.7
10 1-3 4.44% 22.53
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.83%
20.7
7.49%
13.35
5.8%
17.23
3.0%
33.35
1.16%
86.06
0.36%
277.62
1
7.15%
13.98
11.08%
9.02
8.59%
11.64
4.44%
22.53
1.72%
58.15
0.53%
187.58
2
5.29%
18.9
8.2%
12.19
6.36%
15.73
3.28%
30.45
1.27%
78.58
0.39%
253.49
3
2.61%
38.31
4.05%
24.71
3.14%
31.89
1.62%
61.72
0.63%
159.29
0.19%
513.87
4
0.97%
103.53
1.5%
66.8
1.16%
86.18
0.6%
166.81
0.23%
430.48
0.07%
1388.89
5
0.29%
349.77
0.44%
225.68
0.34%
291.21
0.18%
563.7
0.07%
1453.49
0.02%
4694.84
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.94% · Fair: 106.83
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.24% 22.76%
1.5 43.55% 56.45%
2.5 18.61% 81.39%
3.5 6.32% 93.68%
4.5 1.76% 98.23%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.78% 21.22%
1.5 45.88% 54.12%
2.5 20.38% 79.62%
3.5 7.21% 92.79%
4.5 2.1% 97.9%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.83% 20.70
1 14.64% 6.83
2 22.18% 4.51
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.97% 5.89
5+ 18.98% 5.27
Over 2.5 58.35% Under 2.5 41.65%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.12%
Draw 25.63%
Away Win 39.24%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.35%
Under 2.5 41.65%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.84%
No 39.16%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.54% 15.29 10.69% 9.35 82.77% 1.21
-1.5 17.23% 5.8 — 82.77% 1.21
-1.0 17.23% 5.8 19.16% 5.22 63.61% 1.57
-0.5 36.39% 2.75 — 63.61% 1.57
0 (PK) 36.39% 2.75 24.15% 4.14 39.46% 2.53
+0.5 60.54% 1.65 — 39.46% 2.53
+1.0 60.54% 1.65 20.07% 4.98 19.39% 5.16
+1.5 80.61% 1.24 — 19.39% 5.16
+2.0 80.61% 1.24 11.73% 8.53 7.66% 13.05

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.