Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
31.08%
Fair Odds 3.22
Draw
26.27%
Fair Odds 3.81
Away Win
42.65%
Fair Odds 2.34
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.63% Fair Odds 8.6

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.22 —
Draw 3.81 —
Away Win 2.34 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.63% 8.6
2 1-2 9.01% 11.1
3 0-1 8.88% 11.27
4 2-1 7.62% 13.13
5 1-0 7.5% 13.33
6 0-2 6.88% 14.54
7 2-2 5.9% 16.94
8 0-0 5.73% 17.46
9 2-0 4.91% 20.35
10 1-3 4.66% 21.48
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.73%
17.46
8.88%
11.27
6.88%
14.54
3.55%
28.13
1.38%
72.61
0.43%
234.19
1
7.5%
13.33
11.63%
8.6
9.01%
11.1
4.66%
21.48
1.8%
55.42
0.56%
178.79
2
4.91%
20.35
7.62%
13.13
5.9%
16.94
3.05%
32.79
1.18%
84.62
0.37%
272.93
3
2.15%
46.6
3.33%
30.07
2.58%
38.8
1.33%
75.09
0.52%
193.76
0.16%
625.0
4
0.7%
142.31
1.09%
91.81
0.84%
118.46
0.44%
229.25
0.17%
591.72
0.05%
1908.4
5
0.18%
543.18
0.29%
350.39
0.22%
452.08
0.11%
874.89
0.04%
2257.34
0.01%
7299.27
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.75% · Fair: 133.24
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.02% 26.98%
1.5 37.67% 62.33%
2.5 14.52% 85.48%
3.5 4.41% 95.59%
4.5 1.1% 98.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.78% 21.22%
1.5 45.88% 54.12%
2.5 20.38% 79.62%
3.5 7.21% 92.79%
4.5 2.1% 97.9%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.73% 17.46
1 16.38% 6.11
2 23.42% 4.27
3 22.33% 4.48
4 15.97% 6.26
5+ 16.18% 6.18
Over 2.5 54.47% Under 2.5 45.53%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 31.08%
Draw 26.27%
Away Win 42.65%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 54.47%
Under 2.5 45.53%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 57.52%
No 42.48%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.85% 20.64 9.21% 10.86 85.95% 1.16
-1.5 14.05% 7.12 — 85.95% 1.16
-1.0 14.05% 7.12 18.18% 5.5 67.77% 1.48
-0.5 32.23% 3.1 — 67.77% 1.48
0 (PK) 32.23% 3.1 24.77% 4.04 42.99% 2.33
+0.5 57.01% 1.75 — 42.99% 2.33
+1.0 57.01% 1.75 21.51% 4.65 21.48% 4.66
+1.5 78.52% 1.27 — 21.48% 4.66
+2.0 78.52% 1.27 12.89% 7.76 8.59% 11.64

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.