Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
29.87%
Fair Odds 3.35
Draw
26.43%
Fair Odds 3.78
Away Win
43.69%
Fair Odds 2.29
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.76% Fair Odds 8.5

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.35 —
Draw 3.78 —
Away Win 2.29 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.76% 8.5
2 0-1 9.33% 10.72
3 1-2 9.11% 10.97
4 1-0 7.59% 13.18
5 2-1 7.41% 13.5
6 0-2 7.23% 13.83
7 0-0 6.02% 16.61
8 2-2 5.74% 17.42
9 2-0 4.78% 20.92
10 1-3 4.71% 21.24
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.02%
16.61
9.33%
10.72
7.23%
13.83
3.74%
26.76
1.45%
69.07
0.45%
222.77
1
7.59%
13.18
11.76%
8.5
9.11%
10.97
4.71%
21.24
1.82%
54.81
0.57%
176.8
2
4.78%
20.92
7.41%
13.5
5.74%
17.42
2.97%
33.71
1.15%
87.0
0.36%
280.66
3
2.01%
49.82
3.11%
32.14
2.41%
41.47
1.25%
80.27
0.48%
207.17
0.15%
668.45
4
0.63%
158.15
0.98%
102.04
0.76%
131.67
0.39%
254.84
0.15%
657.46
0.05%
2123.14
5
0.16%
627.75
0.25%
404.86
0.19%
522.47
0.1%
1011.12
0.04%
2610.97
0.01%
8403.36
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.71% · Fair: 140.75
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.63% 28.37%
1.5 35.89% 64.11%
2.5 13.38% 86.62%
3.5 3.92% 96.08%
4.5 0.94% 99.06%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.78% 21.22%
1.5 45.88% 54.12%
2.5 20.38% 79.62%
3.5 7.21% 92.79%
4.5 2.1% 97.9%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.02% 16.61
1 16.92% 5.91
2 23.77% 4.21
3 22.26% 4.49
4 15.64% 6.39
5+ 15.39% 6.50
Over 2.5 53.29% Under 2.5 46.71%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 29.87%
Draw 26.43%
Away Win 43.69%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 53.29%
Under 2.5 46.71%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.43%
No 43.57%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.4% 22.75 8.76% 11.42 86.85% 1.15
-1.5 13.15% 7.6 — 86.85% 1.15
-1.0 13.15% 7.6 17.84% 5.61 69.01% 1.45
-0.5 30.99% 3.23 — 69.01% 1.45
0 (PK) 30.99% 3.23 24.93% 4.01 44.08% 2.27
+0.5 55.92% 1.79 — 44.08% 2.27
+1.0 55.92% 1.79 21.94% 4.56 22.14% 4.52
+1.5 77.86% 1.28 — 22.14% 4.52
+2.0 77.86% 1.28 13.25% 7.55 8.88% 11.26

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.