Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
28.66%
Fair Odds 3.49
Draw
26.58%
Fair Odds 3.76
Away Win
44.76%
Fair Odds 2.23
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.87% Fair Odds 8.42

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.49 —
Draw 3.76 —
Away Win 2.23 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.87% 8.42
2 0-1 9.81% 10.19
3 1-2 9.2% 10.87
4 1-0 7.66% 13.06
5 0-2 7.6% 13.15
6 2-1 7.18% 13.92
7 0-0 6.33% 15.8
8 2-2 5.57% 17.97
9 1-3 4.75% 21.04
10 2-0 4.63% 21.58
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.33%
15.8
9.81%
10.19
7.6%
13.15
3.93%
25.46
1.52%
65.69
0.47%
211.91
1
7.66%
13.06
11.87%
8.42
9.2%
10.87
4.75%
21.04
1.84%
54.29
0.57%
175.13
2
4.63%
21.58
7.18%
13.92
5.57%
17.97
2.88%
34.78
1.11%
89.74
0.35%
289.52
3
1.87%
53.51
2.9%
34.52
2.24%
44.55
1.16%
86.22
0.45%
222.52
0.14%
717.88
4
0.57%
176.9
0.88%
114.13
0.68%
147.25
0.35%
284.98
0.14%
735.29
0.04%
2375.3
5
0.14%
730.99
0.21%
471.7
0.16%
608.64
0.08%
1177.86
0.03%
3039.51
0.01%
9803.92
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.68% · Fair: 147.93
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.18% 29.82%
1.5 34.1% 65.9%
2.5 12.27% 87.73%
3.5 3.46% 96.54%
4.5 0.8% 99.2%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.78% 21.22%
1.5 45.88% 54.12%
2.5 20.38% 79.62%
3.5 7.21% 92.79%
4.5 2.1% 97.9%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.33% 15.80
1 17.47% 5.72
2 24.11% 4.15
3 22.18% 4.51
4 15.30% 6.53
5+ 14.61% 6.84
Over 2.5 52.1% Under 2.5 47.9%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 28.66%
Draw 26.58%
Away Win 44.76%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 52.1%
Under 2.5 47.9%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.28%
No 44.72%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.97% 25.19 8.3% 12.05 87.73% 1.14
-1.5 12.27% 8.15 — 87.73% 1.14
-1.0 12.27% 8.15 17.47% 5.72 70.26% 1.42
-0.5 29.74% 3.36 — 70.26% 1.42
0 (PK) 29.74% 3.36 25.07% 3.99 45.19% 2.21
+0.5 54.81% 1.82 — 45.19% 2.21
+1.0 54.81% 1.82 22.38% 4.47 22.81% 4.38
+1.5 77.19% 1.3 — 22.81% 4.38
+2.0 77.19% 1.3 13.62% 7.34 9.19% 10.89

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.