Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
21.56%
Fair Odds 4.64
Draw
27.08%
Fair Odds 3.69
Away Win
51.36%
Fair Odds 1.95
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 13.11% Fair Odds 7.63

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.64 —
Draw 3.69 —
Away Win 1.95 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 13.11% 7.63
2 1-1 12.06% 8.29
3 0-2 10.16% 9.84
4 1-2 9.35% 10.7
5 0-0 8.46% 11.82
6 1-0 7.78% 12.85
7 2-1 5.55% 18.02
8 0-3 5.25% 19.05
9 1-3 4.83% 20.71
10 2-2 4.3% 23.26
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.46%
11.82
13.11%
7.63
10.16%
9.84
5.25%
19.05
2.03%
49.16
0.63%
158.58
1
7.78%
12.85
12.06%
8.29
9.35%
10.7
4.83%
20.71
1.87%
53.43
0.58%
172.35
2
3.58%
27.94
5.55%
18.02
4.3%
23.26
2.22%
45.01
0.86%
116.16
0.27%
374.67
3
1.1%
91.09
1.7%
58.77
1.32%
75.83
0.68%
146.78
0.26%
378.79
0.08%
1222.49
4
0.25%
396.04
0.39%
255.56
0.3%
329.71
0.16%
638.16
0.06%
1647.45
0.02%
5319.15
5
0.05%
2150.54
0.07%
1388.89
0.06%
1792.11
0.03%
3472.22
0.01%
8928.57
0.0%
28571.43
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.56% · Fair: 178.95
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 60.15% 39.85%
1.5 23.48% 76.52%
2.5 6.62% 93.38%
3.5 1.45% 98.55%
4.5 0.26% 99.74%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.78% 21.22%
1.5 45.88% 54.12%
2.5 20.38% 79.62%
3.5 7.21% 92.79%
4.5 2.1% 97.9%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.46% 11.82
1 20.89% 4.79
2 25.80% 3.88
3 21.24% 4.71
4 13.12% 7.62
5+ 10.48% 9.54
Over 2.5 44.85% Under 2.5 55.15%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 21.56%
Draw 27.08%
Away Win 51.36%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 44.85%
Under 2.5 55.15%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 47.38%
No 52.62%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.95% 51.23 5.62% 17.81 92.43% 1.08
-1.5 7.57% 13.22 — 92.43% 1.08
-1.0 7.57% 13.22 14.82% 6.75 77.62% 1.29
-0.5 22.38% 4.47 — 77.62% 1.29
0 (PK) 22.38% 4.47 25.57% 3.91 52.05% 1.92
+0.5 47.95% 2.09 — 52.05% 1.92
+1.0 47.95% 2.09 24.96% 4.01 27.09% 3.69
+1.5 72.91% 1.37 — 27.09% 3.69
+2.0 72.91% 1.37 15.94% 6.27 11.15% 8.97

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.