Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
43.96%
Fair Odds 2.27
Draw
24.07%
Fair Odds 4.15
Away Win
31.97%
Fair Odds 3.13
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.78% Fair Odds 10.23

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.27 —
Draw 4.15 —
Away Win 3.13 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.78% 10.23
2 2-1 8.85% 11.3
3 1-2 7.53% 13.28
4 2-2 6.81% 14.67
5 1-0 6.35% 15.75
6 2-0 5.75% 17.4
7 0-1 5.4% 18.51
8 3-1 5.34% 18.73
9 0-2 4.16% 24.04
10 3-2 4.11% 24.32
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.51%
28.5
5.4%
18.51
4.16%
24.04
2.14%
46.83
0.82%
121.62
0.25%
394.94
1
6.35%
15.75
9.78%
10.23
7.53%
13.28
3.87%
25.87
1.49%
67.2
0.46%
218.15
2
5.75%
17.4
8.85%
11.3
6.81%
14.67
3.5%
28.59
1.35%
74.25
0.41%
241.08
3
3.47%
28.84
5.34%
18.73
4.11%
24.32
2.11%
47.38
0.81%
123.06
0.25%
399.52
4
1.57%
63.73
2.42%
41.39
1.86%
53.75
0.96%
104.7
0.37%
271.96
0.11%
882.61
5
0.57%
176.06
0.87%
114.32
0.67%
148.48
0.35%
289.27
0.13%
751.31
0.04%
2439.02
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.56% · Fair: 63.98
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 83.63% 16.37%
1.5 54.01% 45.99%
2.5 27.21% 72.79%
3.5 11.03% 88.97%
4.5 3.71% 96.29%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.56% 21.44%
1.5 45.55% 54.45%
2.5 20.13% 79.87%
3.5 7.08% 92.92%
4.5 2.05% 97.95%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.51% 28.50
1 11.75% 8.51
2 19.69% 5.08
3 21.98% 4.55
4 18.41% 5.43
5+ 24.66% 4.06
Over 2.5 65.05% Under 2.5 34.95%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 43.96%
Draw 24.07%
Away Win 31.97%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 65.05%
Under 2.5 34.95%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 65.7%
No 34.3%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.57% 9.46 13.34% 7.5 76.09% 1.31
-1.5 23.91% 4.18 — 76.09% 1.31
-1.0 23.91% 4.18 20.41% 4.9 55.68% 1.8
-0.5 44.32% 2.26 — 55.68% 1.8
0 (PK) 44.32% 2.26 22.63% 4.42 33.05% 3.03
+0.5 66.95% 1.49 — 33.05% 3.03
+1.0 66.95% 1.49 17.37% 5.76 15.68% 6.38
+1.5 84.32% 1.19 — 15.68% 6.38
+2.0 84.32% 1.19 9.65% 10.36 6.03% 16.58

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.