Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
43.08%
Fair Odds 2.32
Draw
24.29%
Fair Odds 4.12
Away Win
32.64%
Fair Odds 3.06
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.95% Fair Odds 10.05

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.32 —
Draw 4.12 —
Away Win 3.06 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.95% 10.05
2 2-1 8.81% 11.35
3 1-2 7.66% 13.05
4 2-2 6.78% 14.74
5 1-0 6.46% 15.47
6 2-0 5.72% 17.48
7 0-1 5.62% 17.78
8 3-1 5.2% 19.24
9 0-2 4.33% 23.09
10 3-2 4.0% 24.99
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.65%
27.39
5.62%
17.78
4.33%
23.09
2.22%
44.99
0.86%
116.85
0.26%
379.36
1
6.46%
15.47
9.95%
10.05
7.66%
13.05
3.93%
25.42
1.51%
66.02
0.47%
214.36
2
5.72%
17.48
8.81%
11.35
6.78%
14.74
3.48%
28.72
1.34%
74.6
0.41%
242.19
3
3.37%
29.63
5.2%
19.24
4.0%
24.99
2.05%
48.68
0.79%
126.44
0.24%
410.51
4
1.49%
66.96
2.3%
43.48
1.77%
56.47
0.91%
110.01
0.35%
285.71
0.11%
927.64
5
0.53%
189.14
0.81%
122.84
0.63%
159.52
0.32%
310.75
0.12%
807.1
0.04%
2617.8
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.46% · Fair: 68.43
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.97% 17.03%
1.5 52.82% 47.18%
2.5 26.14% 73.86%
3.5 10.39% 89.61%
4.5 3.43% 96.57%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.56% 21.44%
1.5 45.55% 54.45%
2.5 20.13% 79.87%
3.5 7.08% 92.92%
4.5 2.05% 97.95%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.65% 27.39
1 12.09% 8.27
2 20.00% 5.00
3 22.07% 4.53
4 18.26% 5.48
5+ 23.92% 4.18
Over 2.5 64.26% Under 2.5 35.74%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 43.08%
Draw 24.29%
Away Win 32.64%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 64.26%
Under 2.5 35.74%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 65.18%
No 34.82%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.04% 9.96 13.05% 7.66 76.91% 1.3
-1.5 23.09% 4.33 — 76.91% 1.3
-1.0 23.09% 4.33 20.32% 4.92 56.59% 1.77
-0.5 43.41% 2.3 — 56.59% 1.77
0 (PK) 43.41% 2.3 22.83% 4.38 33.75% 2.96
+0.5 66.25% 1.51 — 33.75% 2.96
+1.0 66.25% 1.51 17.68% 5.66 16.07% 6.22
+1.5 83.92% 1.19 — 16.07% 6.22
+2.0 83.92% 1.19 9.88% 10.12 6.2% 16.14

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.