Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.86%
Fair Odds 2.33
Draw
24.34%
Fair Odds 4.11
Away Win
32.8%
Fair Odds 3.05
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.0% Fair Odds 10.0

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.33 —
Draw 4.11 —
Away Win 3.05 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.0% 10.0
2 2-1 8.8% 11.37
3 1-2 7.7% 12.99
4 2-2 6.77% 14.76
5 1-0 6.49% 15.4
6 2-0 5.71% 17.51
7 0-1 5.68% 17.61
8 3-1 5.16% 19.38
9 0-2 4.37% 22.86
10 3-2 3.97% 25.16
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.69%
27.11
5.68%
17.61
4.37%
22.86
2.25%
44.54
0.86%
115.69
0.27%
375.66
1
6.49%
15.4
10.0%
10.0
7.7%
12.99
3.95%
25.31
1.52%
65.73
0.47%
213.4
2
5.71%
17.51
8.8%
11.37
6.77%
14.76
3.48%
28.76
1.34%
74.7
0.41%
242.54
3
3.35%
29.84
5.16%
19.38
3.97%
25.16
2.04%
49.02
0.79%
127.32
0.24%
413.39
4
1.47%
67.82
2.27%
44.04
1.75%
57.19
0.9%
111.41
0.35%
289.35
0.11%
939.85
5
0.52%
192.64
0.8%
125.11
0.62%
162.47
0.32%
316.46
0.12%
822.37
0.04%
2666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.44% · Fair: 69.58
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.8% 17.2%
1.5 52.52% 47.48%
2.5 25.87% 74.13%
3.5 10.24% 89.76%
4.5 3.36% 96.64%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.56% 21.44%
1.5 45.55% 54.45%
2.5 20.13% 79.87%
3.5 7.08% 92.92%
4.5 2.05% 97.95%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.69% 27.11
1 12.17% 8.22
2 20.08% 4.98
3 22.09% 4.53
4 18.23% 5.49
5+ 23.74% 4.21
Over 2.5 64.06% Under 2.5 35.94%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.86%
Draw 24.34%
Away Win 32.80%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 64.06%
Under 2.5 35.94%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 65.05%
No 34.95%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.91% 10.09 12.98% 7.71 77.11% 1.3
-1.5 22.89% 4.37 — 77.11% 1.3
-1.0 22.89% 4.37 20.29% 4.93 56.82% 1.76
-0.5 43.18% 2.32 — 56.82% 1.76
0 (PK) 43.18% 2.32 22.88% 4.37 33.93% 2.95
+0.5 66.07% 1.51 — 33.93% 2.95
+1.0 66.07% 1.51 17.76% 5.63 16.17% 6.18
+1.5 83.83% 1.19 — 16.17% 6.18
+2.0 83.83% 1.19 9.94% 10.07 6.24% 16.03

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.