Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.07%
Fair Odds 2.85
Draw
25.73%
Fair Odds 3.89
Away Win
39.2%
Fair Odds 2.55
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.16% Fair Odds 8.96

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.85 —
Draw 3.89 —
Away Win 2.55 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.16% 8.96
2 1-2 8.59% 11.64
3 2-1 8.2% 12.19
4 0-1 7.59% 13.17
5 1-0 7.25% 13.8
6 2-2 6.32% 15.83
7 0-2 5.85% 17.11
8 2-0 5.33% 18.78
9 0-0 4.93% 20.29
10 1-3 4.41% 22.67
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.93%
20.29
7.59%
13.17
5.85%
17.11
3.0%
33.33
1.16%
86.57
0.36%
281.06
1
7.25%
13.8
11.16%
8.96
8.59%
11.64
4.41%
22.67
1.7%
58.89
0.52%
191.2
2
5.33%
18.78
8.2%
12.19
6.32%
15.83
3.24%
30.85
1.25%
80.12
0.38%
260.15
3
2.61%
38.32
4.02%
24.88
3.09%
32.32
1.59%
62.95
0.61%
163.51
0.19%
530.79
4
0.96%
104.28
1.48%
67.71
1.14%
87.94
0.58%
171.29
0.22%
444.84
0.07%
1445.09
5
0.28%
354.61
0.43%
230.31
0.33%
299.13
0.17%
582.75
0.07%
1512.86
0.02%
4901.96
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.91% · Fair: 110.22
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.01% 22.99%
1.5 43.21% 56.79%
2.5 18.37% 81.63%
3.5 6.19% 93.81%
4.5 1.72% 98.28%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.56% 21.44%
1.5 45.55% 54.45%
2.5 20.13% 79.87%
3.5 7.08% 92.92%
4.5 2.05% 97.95%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.93% 20.29
1 14.84% 6.74
2 22.33% 4.48
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.86% 5.93
5+ 18.64% 5.36
Over 2.5 57.9% Under 2.5 42.1%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.07%
Draw 25.73%
Away Win 39.20%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.9%
Under 2.5 42.1%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.5%
No 39.5%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.48% 15.44 10.67% 9.37 82.85% 1.21
-1.5 17.15% 5.83 — 82.85% 1.21
-1.0 17.15% 5.83 19.2% 5.21 63.66% 1.57
-0.5 36.34% 2.75 — 63.66% 1.57
0 (PK) 36.34% 2.75 24.24% 4.13 39.42% 2.54
+0.5 60.58% 1.65 — 39.42% 2.54
+1.0 60.58% 1.65 20.11% 4.97 19.31% 5.18
+1.5 80.69% 1.24 — 19.31% 5.18
+2.0 80.69% 1.24 11.71% 8.54 7.6% 13.17

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.