Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.77%
Fair Odds 3.25
Draw
26.41%
Fair Odds 3.79
Away Win
42.82%
Fair Odds 2.34
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.72% Fair Odds 8.53

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.25 —
Draw 3.79 —
Away Win 2.34 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.72% 8.53
2 0-1 9.09% 11.0
3 1-2 9.03% 11.08
4 1-0 7.61% 13.14
5 2-1 7.56% 13.22
6 0-2 7.0% 14.29
7 0-0 5.9% 16.95
8 2-2 5.82% 17.17
9 2-0 4.91% 20.37
10 1-3 4.63% 21.58
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.9%
16.95
9.09%
11.0
7.0%
14.29
3.59%
27.84
1.38%
72.31
0.43%
234.74
1
7.61%
13.14
11.72%
8.53
9.03%
11.08
4.63%
21.58
1.78%
56.05
0.55%
181.98
2
4.91%
20.37
7.56%
13.22
5.82%
17.17
2.99%
33.46
1.15%
86.9
0.35%
282.17
3
2.11%
47.36
3.25%
30.76
2.5%
39.94
1.29%
77.81
0.49%
202.1
0.15%
656.17
4
0.68%
146.86
1.05%
95.37
0.81%
123.85
0.41%
241.25
0.16%
626.57
0.05%
2036.66
5
0.18%
569.15
0.27%
369.69
0.21%
480.08
0.11%
935.45
0.04%
2427.18
0.01%
7874.02
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.72% · Fair: 139.26
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 72.47% 27.53%
1.5 36.96% 63.04%
2.5 14.06% 85.94%
3.5 4.21% 95.79%
4.5 1.03% 98.97%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.56% 21.44%
1.5 45.55% 54.45%
2.5 20.13% 79.87%
3.5 7.08% 92.92%
4.5 2.05% 97.95%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.90% 16.95
1 16.70% 5.99
2 23.63% 4.23
3 22.29% 4.49
4 15.77% 6.34
5+ 15.70% 6.37
Over 2.5 53.77% Under 2.5 46.23%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.77%
Draw 26.41%
Away Win 42.82%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 53.77%
Under 2.5 46.23%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.94%
No 43.06%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.7% 21.29 9.09% 11.01 86.22% 1.16
-1.5 13.78% 7.26 — 86.22% 1.16
-1.0 13.78% 7.26 18.14% 5.51 68.08% 1.47
-0.5 31.92% 3.13 — 68.08% 1.47
0 (PK) 31.92% 3.13 24.91% 4.02 43.18% 2.32
+0.5 56.82% 1.76 — 43.18% 2.32
+1.0 56.82% 1.76 21.65% 4.62 21.52% 4.65
+1.5 78.48% 1.27 — 21.52% 4.65
+2.0 78.48% 1.27 12.95% 7.72 8.58% 11.66

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.