Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
26.14%
Fair Odds 3.83
Draw
26.93%
Fair Odds 3.71
Away Win
46.93%
Fair Odds 2.13
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.09% Fair Odds 8.27

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.83 —
Draw 3.71 —
Away Win 2.13 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.09% 8.27
2 0-1 10.99% 9.1
3 1-2 9.31% 10.74
4 0-2 8.46% 11.82
5 1-0 7.85% 12.74
6 0-0 7.14% 14.01
7 2-1 6.65% 15.04
8 2-2 5.12% 19.53
9 1-3 4.78% 20.93
10 0-3 4.34% 23.02
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.14%
14.01
10.99%
9.1
8.46%
11.82
4.34%
23.02
1.67%
59.79
0.52%
194.14
1
7.85%
12.74
12.09%
8.27
9.31%
10.74
4.78%
20.93
1.84%
54.36
0.57%
176.49
2
4.32%
23.16
6.65%
15.04
5.12%
19.53
2.63%
38.05
1.01%
98.83
0.31%
320.92
3
1.58%
63.17
2.44%
41.02
1.88%
53.27
0.96%
103.78
0.37%
269.54
0.11%
874.89
4
0.44%
229.73
0.67%
149.16
0.52%
193.72
0.27%
377.36
0.1%
980.39
0.03%
3184.71
5
0.1%
1043.84
0.15%
677.97
0.11%
880.28
0.06%
1715.27
0.02%
4464.29
0.01%
14492.75
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.6% · Fair: 166.31
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 66.71% 33.29%
1.5 30.1% 69.9%
2.5 9.96% 90.04%
3.5 2.57% 97.43%
4.5 0.54% 99.46%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.56% 21.44%
1.5 45.55% 54.45%
2.5 20.13% 79.87%
3.5 7.08% 92.92%
4.5 2.05% 97.95%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.14% 14.01
1 18.84% 5.31
2 24.87% 4.02
3 21.88% 4.57
4 14.44% 6.92
5+ 12.83% 7.79
Over 2.5 49.16% Under 2.5 50.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 26.14%
Draw 26.93%
Away Win 46.93%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 49.16%
Under 2.5 50.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.41%
No 47.59%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.14% 31.88 7.33% 13.64 89.53% 1.12
-1.5 10.47% 9.55 — 89.53% 1.12
-1.0 10.47% 9.55 16.66% 6.0 72.87% 1.37
-0.5 27.13% 3.69 — 72.87% 1.37
0 (PK) 27.13% 3.69 25.42% 3.93 47.45% 2.11
+0.5 52.55% 1.9 — 47.45% 2.11
+1.0 52.55% 1.9 23.33% 4.29 24.12% 4.15
+1.5 75.88% 1.32 — 24.12% 4.15
+2.0 75.88% 1.32 14.37% 6.96 9.74% 10.26

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.