Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
25.4%
Fair Odds 3.94
Draw
26.99%
Fair Odds 3.7
Away Win
47.61%
Fair Odds 2.1
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.12% Fair Odds 8.25

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.94 —
Draw 3.7 —
Away Win 2.1 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.12% 8.25
2 0-1 11.32% 8.83
3 1-2 9.33% 10.72
4 0-2 8.72% 11.47
5 1-0 7.87% 12.71
6 0-0 7.35% 13.6
7 2-1 6.48% 15.43
8 2-2 4.99% 20.03
9 1-3 4.79% 20.88
10 0-3 4.48% 22.34
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.35%
13.6
11.32%
8.83
8.72%
11.47
4.48%
22.34
1.72%
58.03
0.53%
188.39
1
7.87%
12.71
12.12%
8.25
9.33%
10.72
4.79%
20.88
1.84%
54.23
0.57%
176.09
2
4.21%
23.76
6.48%
15.43
4.99%
20.03
2.56%
39.03
0.99%
101.37
0.3%
329.16
3
1.5%
66.6
2.31%
43.25
1.78%
56.17
0.91%
109.42
0.35%
284.17
0.11%
922.51
4
0.4%
249.0
0.62%
161.68
0.48%
210.0
0.24%
409.0
0.09%
1062.7
0.03%
3448.28
5
0.09%
1164.14
0.13%
755.29
0.1%
981.35
0.05%
1912.05
0.02%
4975.12
0.01%
16129.03
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.59% · Fair: 169.89
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 65.7% 34.3%
1.5 29.0% 71.0%
2.5 9.36% 90.64%
3.5 2.36% 97.64%
4.5 0.48% 99.52%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.56% 21.44%
1.5 45.55% 54.45%
2.5 20.13% 79.87%
3.5 7.08% 92.92%
4.5 2.05% 97.95%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.35% 13.60
1 19.19% 5.21
2 25.05% 3.99
3 21.79% 4.59
4 14.22% 7.03
5+ 12.40% 8.06
Over 2.5 48.41% Under 2.5 51.59%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 25.40%
Draw 26.99%
Away Win 47.61%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.41%
Under 2.5 51.59%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 51.61%
No 48.39%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.92% 34.24 7.05% 14.18 90.03% 1.11
-1.5 9.97% 10.03 — 90.03% 1.11
-1.0 9.97% 10.03 16.4% 6.1 73.63% 1.36
-0.5 26.37% 3.79 — 73.63% 1.36
0 (PK) 26.37% 3.79 25.48% 3.93 48.15% 2.08
+0.5 51.85% 1.93 — 48.15% 2.08
+1.0 51.85% 1.93 23.6% 4.24 24.55% 4.07
+1.5 75.45% 1.33 — 24.55% 4.07
+2.0 75.45% 1.33 14.61% 6.84 9.94% 10.06

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.