Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
21.2%
Fair Odds 4.72
Draw
27.21%
Fair Odds 3.68
Away Win
51.59%
Fair Odds 1.94
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 13.42% Fair Odds 7.45

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.72 —
Draw 3.68 —
Away Win 1.94 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 13.42% 7.45
2 1-1 12.08% 8.28
3 0-2 10.34% 9.68
4 1-2 9.3% 10.75
5 0-0 8.72% 11.47
6 1-0 7.84% 12.75
7 2-1 5.44% 18.4
8 0-3 5.31% 18.85
9 1-3 4.78% 20.94
10 2-2 4.19% 23.89
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.72%
11.47
13.42%
7.45
10.34%
9.68
5.31%
18.85
2.04%
48.96
0.63%
158.96
1
7.84%
12.75
12.08%
8.28
9.3%
10.75
4.78%
20.94
1.84%
54.4
0.57%
176.62
2
3.53%
28.33
5.44%
18.4
4.19%
23.89
2.15%
46.54
0.83%
120.88
0.25%
392.46
3
1.06%
94.43
1.63%
61.32
1.26%
79.63
0.64%
155.13
0.25%
402.9
0.08%
1308.9
4
0.24%
419.64
0.37%
272.55
0.28%
353.98
0.14%
689.66
0.06%
1792.11
0.02%
5813.95
5
0.04%
2331.0
0.07%
1512.86
0.05%
1964.64
0.03%
3831.42
0.01%
9900.99
0.0%
32258.06
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.54% · Fair: 185.56
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 59.34% 40.66%
1.5 22.75% 77.25%
2.5 6.29% 93.71%
3.5 1.35% 98.65%
4.5 0.23% 99.77%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.56% 21.44%
1.5 45.55% 54.45%
2.5 20.13% 79.87%
3.5 7.08% 92.92%
4.5 2.05% 97.95%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.72% 11.47
1 21.27% 4.70
2 25.95% 3.85
3 21.10% 4.74
4 12.87% 7.77
5+ 10.10% 9.91
Over 2.5 44.07% Under 2.5 55.93%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 21.20%
Draw 27.21%
Away Win 51.59%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 44.07%
Under 2.5 55.93%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 46.62%
No 53.38%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.86% 53.87 5.47% 18.28 92.67% 1.08
-1.5 7.33% 13.65 — 92.67% 1.08
-1.0 7.33% 13.65 14.69% 6.81 77.98% 1.28
-0.5 22.02% 4.54 — 77.98% 1.28
0 (PK) 22.02% 4.54 25.69% 3.89 52.29% 1.91
+0.5 47.71% 2.1 — 52.29% 1.91
+1.0 47.71% 2.1 25.14% 3.98 27.15% 3.68
+1.5 72.85% 1.37 — 27.15% 3.68
+2.0 72.85% 1.37 16.02% 6.24 11.14% 8.98

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.